this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2023
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Showerthoughts
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Honestly one of the reasons I fell for a pyramid scheme coming out of high school.
A friend invited me and I went to shit on it and get him out, but the main guy's whole thing was "everything is a pyramid scheme, at least here you have the chance to build a pyramid beneath you."
Obviously there were other reasons as old as time, but the argument of "so what, your 'regular job' is already a pyramid scheme you can't win" was pretty rattling to a teenager in 2011.
The difference between a pyramid scheme and a good business is where your money comes from, in a pyramid scheme it comes from the people at the bottom of the pyramid, in a business it comes from selling goods and/or services, that's not saying I agree with big business, but one is profiting off of legitimate customers, the other is profiting off it's own "employees". I nearly got caught into one a few years ago too, until I realized what it was, at that point they had only taken a couple $100 for the interview and sign up stage, i had to block my card for them to never get access again, because even though i didnt complete sign up, thwy kept charging me monthly
What about the stock market? They seem to be pricing companies way higher than they are worth.
Imagine you own a goose that lays golden eggs. It lays one golden egg per year. How much would you sell it for? Probably not one golden egg, but definitely you'd sell if for a million gold eggs. You'd probably settle for maybe 5? 10? 15? Something like that.
Suppose the goose only lays one egg per year now (or none at all!) but it's still young and most people expect it to start laying four or five or even ten or twenty eggs per year in a few years from now. It's impossible to tell for sure how many it'll lay over its life, or when that will happen, or if it will happen at all. NOW how much do you sell it for?
That's the stock market.
A bunch of investors think a bunch of gooses will start laying a ton more golden eggs soon, and they're willing to pay big bucks now in exchange for the possibility of that in the future. This isn't a pyramid scheme or a zero sum game or anything like that. It's just a prediction of the future which may or may not be correct, and only time will tell.
That's the description of the very basics of the stock market.
Now do the derivatives, and let's see why it's gone to hell.
I don't want to pay for the full goose right now, I just want to pay for the right to buy the goose later, at a price that's fixed now. I'll decide later if I actually want to buy the goose or not.
Alternatively, I'm not sure how much my goose will continue to lay in the future, I'd like to pay for insurance to guarantee me a fixed price to sell the goose later if I want to.