this post was submitted on 21 Jun 2024
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Moore’s law is not a given. It has been slowing down recently.
Current games are made for current day’s design of graphics cards. They are very dependent on pixel shaders for example.
Let’s be hypothetical. Imagine that future graphics cards go all in on ray tracing. Pixel shaders have become a thing of the past and no new hardware support it natively anymore.
Preservers have two options: either try their best to simulate pixel shaders effects through ray tracing, or emulate it through software.
Simulating through ray tracing won’t be accurate. Many pixel shader effects can’t be properly translated to ray tracing. Emulating through software can be hard. I don’t think many games even from 20 years ago can be fully run on modern CPUs.
The direct numerics of moors law may not be definite.
But the principal it defines is. In the future computers will have much more power then they do now.
The reason modern GPUs use things like shaders etc is to allow them to archive massive manipulation of data in more efficient ways specific for the task desired.
Honestly this is why I mention time scale as the main thing that will make this possible. How modern gpus or other specialised processers do the task is less important then what the game code is asking the gpu to achieve.
The idea that at a unknown future date. The CPU GPUs or what ever future tech we have. will never be able to run fast enough to read current cpu or gpu instruction sets. And generate the effect defined using future techniques is not viable as an argument. The only questions are how long and is anyone going to have the motivation to reverse engineer the large but finite instruction sets used by secretive hardware corps today.