Rebate estimates are based on published rates for qualifying vehicles and assume that 25% of EVs sold were not eligible.

This eligibility rate seems high based on what we know of the EV market in China.

These were the rebates for 2022:

• All-electric plug-in cars with a range over 400 km are eligible for subsidies of RMB 12,600 (approximately $2000).

• All-electric plug-in cars with a range of 300–400 km are eligible for subsidies of RMB 9100 (approximately $1400).

• Plug-in hybrid cars are now eligible for subsidies of RMB 4800 (approximately $750).

• All-electric plug-in cars with a range of less than 250 km are no longer eligible for subsidies.

For example, the 118k RMB BYD Dolphin has a range of 301km, the 32k RMB Wuling Hongguang Mini EV has a range of 120km, and... Wait, hold up, the what now? The Mini EV is the best-selling car in China, has shipped 1.2 million units as of February 2023, and costs WHAT? The Mini EV market in China is huge, and assuming only 25% of sales aren't captured by rebates seems... low?

Rebate estimates prior to 2023 assume local government support amounted to 15% of central government support.

This might be high, might be low, whatever. It's a marginal error.

The sales tax exemption is calculated using the stated 10% tax exemption for qualifying NEVs.

This ignores the tax exemption caps, but since most EVs are under the cap price it's fine I guess.

Infrastructure subsidy estimates are based on funding amounts provided by the Ministry of Science and Technology.

Can't be bothered to check this.

R&D estimates use government-funded R&D statistics and assume that 90% of auto R&D expenditure went towards NEVs.

Wait, WHAT? Are they ignoring that China has many massive SOEs that have been building ICE cars for forever?

Government procurement estimates assume that 50% of government procurement of autos went towards NEVs.

Again, see above.

Estimates assume that the average prices of commercial and passenger vehicles are RMB 1.2 million and RMB 250,000, respectively.

Again, see the Mini EV.

Annual currency conversions were done using exchange rate data from the OECD.

Fine.

It's clear then where the issues come from: a gross misunderstanding of the Chinese EV market, the average EV cost, and the maximum eligible tax exemption.

China claims $28 billion USD up to 2022 and another $72 billion up to 2027 (almost entirely vehicle tax exemptions)... Of course, those vehicle tax exemptions were inherently because of the pollution of ICE vehicles and only applied to the domestic market.