What’s fucking delusional is thinking that a bunch of civilians armed with handguns and rifles could ever match a modern military should it come to violent revolution

You just have to make it expensive enough that the military doesn't want to fight, and you need to have enough of the civilian population on your side that the gov't can't control them, too. As the gov't commits atrocities against its' own people in an attempt to crush a rebellion, it ends up creating more ideological rebels.

And anyways, you'll note that the US has tended to get pretty fucked up when dealing with insurgencies and guerilla warfare where it can't leverage air superiority. How many, say, Air Force pilots do you think will start refusing orders when they find out that their last 'precision bombing' run killed 150 children in a hospital?