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I don't feel like I understand the motivations of the players involved here. What am I missing?
Wagner poses a risk to Putin, and Putin is a little coward, so they have been isolated to a camp in Belarus as a sort of exile instead of him attempting a complete confrontation with them.
Putin and Lukashenko finds a use for this (for them) unfortunate situation by using them as a threat to Poland, even though Wagner most likely plays no part at all in all of this. Helps saving the face of Putin and Lukashenko by even suggesting that this is something that Wagner would be even remotely interested in doing for them, while at the same time (seemingly) taunting Poland for the internal consumption of Russians, who perceives these sorts of emotional tantrums to be very macho and becoming of "strong men" rulers.
There is no actual risk of Wagner entering Poland, except perhaps if they were forced at gunpoint to cross the border by the Russians.
you see if the Wagners are marching into Poland it is not an army and it is also not mercenarys employed by russia or belarus because mercenaries are illegal there and russia would never have done something illegal. So anyways NATO would be evily attacking them for the acts of private citizens that they had nothing to do in, so NATO is the baddies mkay?