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Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat
(www.bloomberg.com)
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this post was submitted on 30 Jul 2024
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Overall the polls have been encouraging for her, but that MI one look really wrong. 538 has her about down a point on average.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/
538 shows the same result, Kamala +11, for the specific Morning Consult poll cited in the chart.
But you are correct that this poll is an outlier compared to other polls, and we probably need more data and for the race to settle a bit before we have a sense of the actual margin.
I'm hesitant to put too much stock in any numbers a single week into her candidacy. It also bears repeating that no poll matters unless people vote.
I didn't realize Nate Silver left 538 (he's over at Silver Bulletin now.) Not sure how credible they are anymore, after Disney/ABC gutted the team, and he left with the ~~magic sauce~~ algorithms. They were the one place I semi-trusted for polling, most accurate I've come across (since 2012 or so).
Yeah, I'm not sure how reliable their final predicitons will be, but they're definitely still useful for compiling polls, and their pollster ratings are useful since they only have to look at how close polls came to being correct after the actual vote. That's primarily what I use them for.