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Are we all a bit surprised by the success of this offensive? Including Ukraine and Russia?
I don't understand what Ukraines plan is here. What if Russia just lets them have it? I mean it's clear Ukraine doesn't want it, it's just tactical.
One of Putin's main support comes from his "Keep Russians safe" narrative. It's also diplomatic currency in case they start negotiating peace
For sure it's a blow to putin and his image, but is it substantial or just wishful thinking?
What if hypothetically, it's no problem for Putin? Wouldn't Russia just let them have whatever they took, make a "surovikin line" there and let Ukraine deal with all the issues that come with invasion and dealing with the local population. Not to mention there will at some point come questions from the western partners about this occupation.
It would be political and most likely literal suicide for Putin to do that.
Might be, but now they are literally building trenches there.
They have to if they don't want to lose more. They are on the defensive, it's normal to build trenches.
There's several benefits:
I mean, if the russians refuse to trade territory in the end, a good chunk of Belgorod oblast will be useful to keep Kharkiv further from russia if they try anything again.
Best case scenario, they end up in Moscow.
More realistically, they draw troops ment for offensive operations into defending these regions. This relieves pressure for Ukraine to take back territory elsewhere. I heard they were targeting specific airbases, but I can't confirm It's relatively low risk, with several potentially good rewards.
Is it clear? Seems profitable to own that clay - the pipeline infrastructure connects Asian oil with European markets, and whoever controls it can charge rent and leverage favors. For example, back in the day when Russia used to own it, they tried using it to extort the EU, begging for ridiculous concessions and threatening to shut down the pipeline if their silly demands aren't met.
Russia won't just let them have it because then Ukraine can start expanding into Russian territory and if Putin lets them do that, soon Moscovites will be saying "Slava Ukraini".