this post was submitted on 06 Sep 2024
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That explains your optimism. Code generation is at a stage where it slaps together Stack Overflow answers and code ripped off from GitHub for you. While that is quite effective to get at least a crappy programmer to cobble together something that barely works, it is a far cry from having just anyone put out an idea in plain language and getting back code that just does it. A programmer is still needed in the loop.
I'm sure I don't have to explain to you that AI development over the decades has often reached plateaus where the approach needed to be significantly changed in order for progress to be made, but it could certainly be the case where LLMs (at least as they are developed now) aren't enough to accomplish what you describe.
It's not about stages. It's about the Achilles and tortoise problem.
There's extrapolation inside the same level of abstraction as the data given and there's extrapolation of new levels of abstraction.
But frankly far smarter people than me are working on all that. Maybe they'll deliver.