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this post was submitted on 07 Sep 2024
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This is why polling sucks, or rather, that scientific polling can't account for what it can't account for. Unlikely voters, have never voted previously, where why Trump did so much better than his polling showed in 2016 and 2020.
Don't sleep on him.
Exactly. I hate these articles that encourage complacency. Pennsylvania is on a knife's edge and everyone needs to vote. You could write an article about the signs pointing in Trump's favor in PA just as easily if not more.
Register to vote. Check your registration to make sure it's active. Tell your friends to do the same. Make a plan to vote. Help your friends make a plan to vote. These are the only messages that are helpful in PA.
I could read articles from every single paper in the world giving me detailed breakdowns by renowned scientists, statisticians, math experts, and even some geologists if you're feeling frisky, all telling me how Harris is 99.99999999% likely to win, and only 10,000 votes will go to anyone else, and that will still not change my opinion.
GO VOTE
That cuts both ways though. Trump lost the last election, and since then there have been a few things happen. How would Jan 6, and all the crimes Trump is convicted or indicted for affect the likeliness of an unlikely vote to go out and vote for him again?
Something no one can know either way. There's really no reason to bother considering the top line of the polling data. It's all about looking at polling about the issues people are concerned about and addressing those concerns.
Given we really have no way of knowing what will happen on election day, the only thing to do is to keep convincing people to vote for Harris right up to election day.