this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2023
633 points (97.6% liked)

News

23361 readers
3289 users here now

Welcome to the News community!

Rules:

1. Be civil


Attack the argument, not the person. No racism/sexism/bigotry. Good faith argumentation only. This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban. Do not respond to rule-breaking content; report it and move on.


2. All posts should contain a source (url) that is as reliable and unbiased as possible and must only contain one link.


Obvious right or left wing sources will be removed at the mods discretion. We have an actively updated blocklist, which you can see here: https://lemmy.world/post/2246130 if you feel like any website is missing, contact the mods. Supporting links can be added in comments or posted seperately but not to the post body.


3. No bots, spam or self-promotion.


Only approved bots, which follow the guidelines for bots set by the instance, are allowed.


4. Post titles should be the same as the article used as source.


Posts which titles don’t match the source won’t be removed, but the autoMod will notify you, and if your title misrepresents the original article, the post will be deleted. If the site changed their headline, the bot might still contact you, just ignore it, we won’t delete your post.


5. Only recent news is allowed.


Posts must be news from the most recent 30 days.


6. All posts must be news articles.


No opinion pieces, Listicles, editorials or celebrity gossip is allowed. All posts will be judged on a case-by-case basis.


7. No duplicate posts.


If a source you used was already posted by someone else, the autoMod will leave a message. Please remove your post if the autoMod is correct. If the post that matches your post is very old, we refer you to rule 5.


8. Misinformation is prohibited.


Misinformation / propaganda is strictly prohibited. Any comment or post containing or linking to misinformation will be removed. If you feel that your post has been removed in error, credible sources must be provided.


9. No link shorteners.


The auto mod will contact you if a link shortener is detected, please delete your post if they are right.


10. Don't copy entire article in your post body


For copyright reasons, you are not allowed to copy an entire article into your post body. This is an instance wide rule, that is strictly enforced in this community.

founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
[–] BigNote@lemm.ee 6 points 1 year ago (1 children)

The polls are only showing that because he hasn't clinched the nomination yet so the huge number of people who dislike both candidates don't feel like they have to make a decision yet. Once that happens, I think we'll see a big drop in his numbers. I could be wrong, but I'm usually not, at least when it comes to politics.

[–] Hyperreality@kbin.social 11 points 1 year ago (1 children)

the huge number of people who dislike both candidates don’t feel like they have to make a decision yet.

If you look at actual polls, you'll find the number of undecided voters is surprisingly low.

Eg. https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2024-trump-and-biden-on-course-for-tight-rematch/

An august 1-2 poll of Michigan voters, 44% Trump, 44% biden, 8% other, just 5% undecided. It's unlikely they'll all split Biden, and even they disproportionately did, a Trump win would still be well within the margin of error.

Biden isn't an unknown quantity. Trump isn't an unknown quantity. Voters know what they stand for by now, they know what they'll be like as president. And yet it's still close.

Let's put it this way, I admire your optimism if you assume Biden will win easily.

[–] BigNote@lemm.ee 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

We will know soon enough. I was right when I said that there wouldn't be a "red wave" during the midterms, in spite of what the polls said, and I'm positive that I am right when I say that the polls aren't giving us a clear picture of what to expect of a third Trump presidential campaign.

Again, what I think we're seeing in the polls reflects a dislike for both candidates, but not a dislike that's evenly distributed or felt with the same degree of vehemence.

Teasing out that difference is difficult using traditional polling methods, but it becomes obvious when one looks at how many Americans find Trump objectively abhorrent.

My prediction is that Biden defeats Trump handily, not in a landslide, but convincingly enough to permanently show Trump the door.

I may be wrong. We will see.

[–] Hyperreality@kbin.social 1 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

I was right when I said that there wouldn’t be a “red wave” during the midterms, in spite of what the polls said

The polls didn't say there would be a red wave. Aggregated polling suggested there was a 42% chance the democrats won at least the house.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/

Same thing happened in 2016, when IRC polling suggested Trump had something like a 1/3 chance of winning, but media painted a Clinton win being a certainty.

Be more wary of how the media reports on polling.