Red Army Forever
for posting on military topics
I think the author overstates the case for China/Russia getting involved and understates how much damage a 2-week sustained air campaign can do to Iranian civilian infrastructure.
I also think the author understates the cost to the US of a 2-week sustained air campaign considering their severely limited stocks.
I generally agree, the logistics are very much against the US here.
The US couldn't defeat Afghanistan and Afghanistan is a significantly poorer and less populous country. The US though can still weaken or ruin Iran for years to come. Iraq is a shell of its former self more than a decade after the US invasion.
I want to be optimistic but the US is dangerous and no one will hold it accountable if it decided to use nuclear weapons.
The use of nukes is what worries me the most.