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To comment on my own link, I still think (per comments elsewhere), that right from the get-go this is a 3-way play orchestrated by Putin to get a strong fight-ready leader on his western flank, and north of Ukraine.
I do not think it has much at all to do with a coup or exile.
Doubt it, any military buildup would be spotted weeks before any possible "surprise offensive" were to take place. It's one of the most monitored borders in the world afterall.
Good point, but Putin plays the long game, I suspect this is strategic manoeuvring for 12-18 months from now.
Indeed. People forget that that satellites exist and it’s not very easy to hide traveling military equipment and troops.
Months before the war, every news outlet was warning about a buildup on the Russian border.
Experts are saying that’s unlikely, though. Why ruin the credibility of the Ministry of Defense if they needed a strong leader? Especially one that’s openly criticized the war to begin with. Pretty bad for morale.
If anything, we’ve learned Putin has a lot less orchestral than expected.
Paramilitary private armies are expensive and unpredictable. And technically illegal under Russian law.
At a time when resources are tight and public trust in government is flaky, it’s makes sense for Putin to consolidate Wagner into the Russian army.
Prigozhin isn’t a brilliant military strategist (to be fair, neither is Shoigu). He’s a businessman who earned $2B through Wagner milking State money. The dissolution of Wagner is the end of that revenue stream, and possibly his own life.
IMO, it seems to me like the mutiny is a last ditch negotiating tactic or emotional outburst as a response to losing his livelihood.
Or.. we’ll learn in the coming months and years that there’s a lot more to this story.
Fair enough, I couldn't disagree at all.
Would be wonderful to sneak a peak at a historical analysis from ++50yrs: either it's Putin's masterstroke, or he's struggling to tamp down prima donna Prigohzin with his buddy Lukashenko's help. Occam's razor would certainly point to the latter.
yea. the whole thing smells like a dead fish in sun.
You are just comming up with shit, stop doing creative writing. Prigozhin is a prisoner and he is closer to the death sentence than to ever commanding an army again.
Every analysis I’ve read from reputable sources have come to the conclusion that this was bad for Putin. I think I’ll stick to Occam’s razor on this one.
I wonder if theres a bookie who specialises in the untimely demise of Putin-affiliate people - then I wonder what Prigozhin's odds are.
Ha, I'd rather take odds on Lukashenko "falling from a window" - I seem to remember he was reported as "seriously ill" a few weeks ago, plus if I remember Putin was pressuring him to attack Ukraine, and he refused.
Get rid of L. and Putin can install Prigo. and they will work together on Ukraine. Scary.
In my opinion, Prigozhin is done. How would you envision Putin installing Prigozhin anywhere and save face?
Yeah you may be right, I even hope you're right. But I don't think Putin cares about saving face in the west.
I would guess his biggest challenge would be keeping the Belorussian people in line. I know little about the country, I should probably read up!
I do not think he wants to save face in the west, but within Russia itself. But who knows 🤷
That's exactly right. I imagine Putin & his lackeys are very busy indeed right now. Just I would definitely not count him out like many articles seem to be.
Edit: spelling
I sure hope he stays away from any open windows.
Wonder who is going to kill Ukrainian children now
I don't believe he was the only one. Far from it sadly