The people responsible don’t care. They will be perfectly fine letting the rest of us die. They’ll only start giving a shit once cheap labor starts getting hard to come by.
This rule is actually "an order of magnitude best estimate", which means it's more of a range, somewhere between 0.1 to 10 deaths per 1000 tons of carbon burned.
That leaves a lot of room for scenarios even more dire than the one outlined here.
"When climate scientists run their models and then report on them, everybody leans toward being conservative, because no one wants to sound like Doctor Doom," explains Pierce.
"We've done that here too and it still doesn't look good."
Translation: 10 billion people will die.
2nd translation: Almost everyone will die.
My wild ass guess is humanity will eventually die back to, at best, bronze age population levels.
So what you're saying is... we are going to enter a dark age... and we could use a Foundation to lessen it's impact on humanity?
It's OK, they're just billion poorest people.
/S
In Europe over 60,000 people died in 2022 due to heatwaves.
People are blind to these deaths because they're not being taken out by a single devastating event, but rather a series of small events the people brush off as "they were going to die anyway".
It's one of the reasons I've not, and will not have children. This is getting exponentially worse and I couldn't image the horror that our future will face.
... meanwhile we're compensating people who built $10m houses on cliff tops, who then cut down the trees securing the cliff edge, and are now finding out that cliffs erode, and their houses are failing into the sea.
... we're exempting farmers from paying the actual costs of their carbon emissions while they pollute or water ways with reckless abandon. It's only the poor fuckers down stream who'll get sick and die.
... While we still argue if old and sick people should die of COVID so that fashion shops can still hock their tat manufactured halfway around the world and shipped here on ships that burn the shittiest fuel available.
I have had kids, and lament the world I'm giving to them.
I wish I could be an optimist, too.
This article is bogus. It doesn't even mention the power or thoughts and prayers once!
Wishes and spells
Well that's fine because I have a wizard what installs programs for me
There are some real disgusting people here. Anyone who thinks that the solution to climate change is to kill a lot of humans should consider going first.
It only took 250 years since the industrial revolution to utterly doom our world.
Oh, our world will be fine, it's not the Earth's first mass extinction event. We - and a lot of flora and fauna we depend on - are really fucked though.
Nature knows how to solve this problem.
This issue is that nature is going to start with the people who contribute the least to the issue.
If only the people contributing the most could actually feel the pressure.
And those who contribute the least to this issue are also likely the ones who want it fixed the most.
By resetting earth. I wonder what species will wander the lands and waters in millions of years...
Is the earth is getting a fever to kill the viruses that are infecting it?
It is is
I wouldn’t be surprised if a majority of those casualties in the USA will be in Florida and California.
Many of the major insurance companies stopped issuing new home owners policies in those states because it was no longer profitable or very risky. IIRC, increasing housing costs and frequency of these events was the main reason they pulled out
Yup. The same people who deny science start paying attention once their own money becomes involved.
In Florida, the issue is rising sea levels. If you look at one of those interactive maps showing the effects of a rising sea level, you’ll notice that all of southern Florida is at risk of major flooding.
In California, wildfires are the problem. As the atmosphere gets warmer and rainfall becomes unreliable, forests get drier. Fires will become bigger, spread faster, and be even more frequent.
Neither state will be a profitable place for home insurance companies.
Me first.
Get in line.
"1 billion people on track to die"... I guess we're doing an empirical test of the trolley problem.
We have a choice between inconveniencing some people (especially some very rich people); vs saving billions of lives by switching tracks. And apparently the empirical choice is to equivocate and delay so that we stay on the path of death and ruin. ... It isn't the solution I would have chosen personally.
There is quite a lot of extra discussion regarding the 1000-ton rule in the artual report itself (link can ne found in the article). Here are some excerpts:
it is likely more than 300 million (“likely best case”) and less than 3 billion (“likely worst case”) will die as a result of AGW of 2 °C.
A more recent attempt at quantifying future deaths in connection with specific amounts of carbon was published by Bressler [69]. Coining an economically oriented term “mortality cost of carbon”, he claimed that “for every 4434 metric tons of CO2 pumped into the atmosphere beyond the 2020 rate of emissions, one person globally will die prematurely from the increased temperature”. His predictions were confined to deaths from extreme heat when wet-bulb temperature exceeds skin temperature (35 °C).
Some interesting stuff in there.
I would've added more but holy shit the mdpi.com mobile website is atrocious to copy stuff from. It keeps throwing me at the end of the entire article, highlighting everything.
And with your help we can make sure that that number includes those that need to die.
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