Love the dialogue here but you always have to follow the money trail. The best way to keep what we love is to bankroll our instances to keep them running and scalable to additional users without ads. Remember, if you aren't paying for the product then you become the product. Meta has nothing without selling ads or monetizing user data. That's their business model. As long as we chip in we can always maintain our independence. I'm fine with never seeing or interacting with content from Threads.
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And the effects will be
While the effects you list don't seem entirely implausible, you're stating these hypothetical situations as if they are already fact and we have evidence to indicate that. I agree with @substill in that I don't see Threads being a threat to small communities.
Then let's warn people against using anything Meta and by doing so drive people away from it.