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submitted 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Image is from this SCMP article.

Much of the analysis below is sourced from Michael Roberts' great website.


Japan's ruling parliamentary coalition, consisting of the LDP (purple) and it's junior coalition partner Komeito (in light pink) have lost their ruling majority. They have ruled post-war Japan for almost its entire history. The LDP is currently led by Shigeru Ishiba after Kishida stood down due to a corruption scandal, and ties to the Unification Church.

While geopolitical factors (over the cold war between the US and China, etc) may have played a role, by far the biggest reason for this result in the poor economic conditions over the past few years. Inflation has risen and real wages have fallen, with little relief for the working class via things like tax reductions. While inequality in Japan is not as extreme as in America, it is still profound, with the top 10% possessing 60% of the wealth, while the bottom 50% possess just 5%.

Shinzo Abe previously tried to boost economic performance through monetary easing and fiscal deficits, while Kishida ran on a "new capitalism" which rejected Abe's neoliberalism and promised to reduce inequality. Nothing substantial has resulted from all this, however, other than increasing corporate wealth. Innovation continues to fall, and domestic profitability is low, resulting in decreasing investment at home by Japanese corporations. Labour productivity growth has only slightly picked up since the mid-2000s and is falling again. The rate of profit has fallen by half since the 1960s, and Japan has been in a manufacturing recession - or very close to it - since late 2022. In essence: there is no choice but between stagnation or decline.


Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] FuckyWucky@hexbear.net 60 points 1 day ago
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[-] coolusername@lemmy.ml 50 points 1 day ago

🇺🇦🇬🇪Snipers trained in Ukraine are arriving in Georgia to organize provocations during mass protests, sources in the region tell TASS.

New euromaidan?

[-] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 24 points 1 day ago

Yea that’s the plan. Ignore the election results and try to forcibly install western-aligned fascists via violent intimidation

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[-] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 42 points 1 day ago

Hexbear News Mega America desk, I have caught the electoralist bug and want a sitrep on the upcoming US presidential election - which are the key swing states? what are the battlegrounds to look out for? where are the biggest upsets likely to happen for Harris and Trump?

Give me your informed analysis, give me your spicy takes, give me your conspiracy theories, but please keep them realistic and not the wishful thinking ones. I want to become an “expert” on US electoralism.

[-] newmou@hexbear.net 26 points 1 day ago

Latest polls showing Maine, Kansas, and Oregon as totally unpredictable swing states. All other states pretty much settled, about half on Jill Stein. Rumors are Bernie made a few calls this weekend to try and consolidate the race in Trump’s favor, but there’s not much time left before election day. Biden has replaced Waltz as Kamala’s running mate, and with Kamala’s poor health most people are seeing that as a positive, last ditch effort to win over voters in Florida and California. Could be decisive, but again Jill Stein is looking very strong so it’s anyone’s game right now. In a repeat of last year, it’ll basically come down to Kansas again, and how their Arab population (big on Waltz) perceives the last-second swap.

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[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 30 points 1 day ago

Most accurate non partisan polls I've seen show the election to be at a statistical tie. But I think Trump is the more likely candidate to win as it stands.

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[-] take_five_seconds@hexbear.net 42 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)
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[-] FunkyStuff@hexbear.net 43 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Since everyone's talking about that alleged comedian's racist joke about Puerto Rico being a garbage patch, and I can't think of an interesting discussion topic about Japan:

What strategic value does Puerto Rico currently represent to empire? Previously, a staging ground to place American bases in the Caribbean near Cuba was an absolutely critically important point in the Cold War. As US-Cuba relations cool down, and as the Puerto Rican debt crisis and failure to recover electrical infrastructure from 2017's hurricane Maria post privatization of the electric grid, it seems like our value to empire is reduced. Puerto Rico receives more money in federal funds every year than we produce with our entire manufacturing sector, and the usual culprits for embezzlement, Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) make up a comparatively very small portion of the economy. Previously, I had concluded that the reason the US keeps us around as a colony was just that, the strategic value. But how is it realized?

Follow up question, how could whatever strategic value Puerto Rico has for the US, in the event of a successful PR independence movement, be leveraged against US empire?

Edit: the claim that the federal funds are greater than the manufacturing GDP is entirely wrong actually, I misremembered that from when I had looked this up before and skimmed the sources and came to the wrong conclusion. I just checked and GDP from manufacturing is around 5x federal funding. Still, there's a huge debt problem that's being handled via austerity instead of economic development. I doubt there's too much potential for development in a country with an enormous brain drain problem and inflated US dollar wages, at least under the colonial status quo. So it still begs the question, what's the plan long term?

[-] RedDawn@hexbear.net 26 points 1 day ago

If Puerto Rico were independent it could start doing deals with China which the US doesn’t want, I read a whole book about that once which I can’t remember the details of super well but maybe the book would interest you.

America’s Last Fortress: Puerto Rico’s sovereignty, China’s Caribbean Belt and Road, and America’s National Security

By Alexander Odishelidze

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[-] Zascoco@hexbear.net 38 points 1 day ago

https://x.com/GUAN_FAHRANZAYD/status/1850253566855832016

Good twitter thread about the algerian missiles program. For anyone that is interested. It is in Arabic.

[-] Aru@lemmygrad.ml 22 points 1 day ago
[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 40 points 1 day ago

English article from Fereshteh Sadeghi on the US-israeli attack on Iran last week.

The Iranian army later in the day announced the death of at least four officers, including a colonel, killed during Israeli air raids in Khuzestan. An informed source speaking to The Cradle on condition of anonymity reveals that the number of Iranian casualties is higher than what is officially being reported.

Details about the Israeli air raids or the extent of the harm to the Iranian military are unclear and patchy at best. Both sides have a vested interest in controlling the narrative: Tel Aviv to project power and deterrence, and Tehran to maintain an image of resilience and minimize perceived vulnerabilities.

Israel says it deployed over 100 F-35 fighter jets to conduct the offensive. However, an Iranian conservative lawmaker on Saturday morning claimed that the strikes in Tehran were actually carried out by small drones or quadcopters.

Hamid Rasaei wrote on his Telegram channel that “the Zionist regime’s agents in Tehran were involved in those attacks and Iranian anti-aircraft guns fired at those microdrones.”

The narrative in the west of the country was different. Images of an Israeli missile’s booster falling in Iraq’s Salahuddin province suggest Israel used the Golden Horizon Air launched Ballistic Missile to hit Iranian radars in the western belt of the country.

The use of Iraqi airspace by Israel was confirmed by the Khatam Al-Anbiya Air Defense Base. It has blamed the US military for allowing Israel to fire air-launched ballistic missiles into Iranian territory from 100 kilometers deep inside the Iraqi soil. No such permission had been granted from Iraqi authorities.

...

Although the official Iranian media have downplayed the extent and strength of the Israeli strikes, University of Tehran academic and political analyst Mohammad Marandi tells The Cradle that “it was a big operation on the side of Israel and actually a considerable one, as Israelis did harm Iranian radar and defense systems.”

Fouad Izadi points to a stellar performance by Iran's air defense systems, in which “Iran was basically able to minimize the effect of this aggression” by Israel.

Marandi, who served as a consultant for the Iranian negotiating team at the last round of Vienna nuclear talks, agrees with the assessment that Iran’s air defenses performed well: “Iranians had conducted security and intelligence operations ahead of the strikes and succeeded in limiting the extent of damage by dummies and decoys as well as spreading misinformation about sensitive sites.”

As he tells The Cradle, the damage inflicted on Iranian military sites was not grave because “the possibility of a direct confrontation with the United States convinced Iranians many years ago to relocate almost all sensitive sites and strategic production facilities underground. Neither warplanes nor missiles are able to penetrate into those underground facilities.”

“What remains on the ground are small workshops producing missile spare parts and they are scattered across the country, but not near borders, that’s why the strike failed to leave a significant harm,” Marandi adds.

[-] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 27 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

I agree with most of what Mohammad Marandi says here, it lines up with most of the satellite imagery I have been able to view. Some hits on air defence systems and limited hits on above ground missile and drone production facilities.

Unfortunately the air defence systems protecting the skies came at the cost of the lives of the operators (incredibly brave people who sacrificed their lives to protect their country) and leaving those systems out of action until the radars are repaired or replaced, which is particularly concerning in my view. I'd hope for Russia or China to supply some air defence batteries for Iran in the meantime while the systems that were damaged are repaired or replaced. The USA have supplied Israel with a THAAD battery while they re-arm Arrow-2 and Arrow-3, given that context Russia or China assisting Iran with air defence systems can be seen as a response and not an escalation.

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 29 points 1 day ago

I think Ayatollah Khamenei's insight is, as always, spot on: "the enemies are trying to overstate the impact of the strikes, but downplaying them and saying they were insignificant is a mistake."

I will say, after a year of seeing tens of thousands of Arabs being shredded due to US-zionist airstrikes, it is inspiring to see that the damage from this particular strike was so small and so much was intercepted.

Us-israeli deterrence is not anything like what it was and Iran is now a heavyweight in the field.

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[-] plinky@hexbear.net 60 points 1 day ago

is this some hidden cia caucus inside dsa? The fuck north star stands for

[-] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 52 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

The fuck north star stands for

spoilerPolaris

[-] Babs@hexbear.net 50 points 1 day ago

North Star is the DSA's Democratic Party caucus. Their whole thing is getting people to vote blue to stop the uniquely evil Republicans.

[-] someone@hexbear.net 42 points 1 day ago

Harris Walz:

Harris Walls:

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[-] PorkrollPosadist@hexbear.net 41 points 1 day ago

Another ballot drop-off arson attack has occurred (I believe this is the third), this time in Vancouver, WA.

https://www.katu.com/news/local/vancouver-ballot-box-seen-smoking-same-morning-as-portland-ballot-box-arson

[-] Huldra@hexbear.net 37 points 1 day ago

There is something morbidly funny to me in the Zionist line that Yahya Sinwar "died like a dog." Basically just confessing that they regularly kill dogs using drone surveillance and tank shells.

It never looks quite good to compare the killing of your enemies to killing a dog, but if you're gonna use it it needs to be embarrassing for the victim and not your own side, like death by starvation or just plain execution.

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[-] QuillcrestFalconer@hexbear.net 47 points 1 day ago

"Israel" is trying to pass a bill to completely ban UNRWA. The bill will very likely be adopted.

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this post was submitted on 28 Oct 2024
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