MarmiteLover123

Probably need to look at what caused apartheid south africa hastened collapse in support as well

Read this for an idea from a military point of view

The Battle of Cuito Cuanavale (1987-1988)

"The next day, June 27 1988, Cuban MIGs attacked SADF positions near the Calueque dam, 11km north of the Namibian border. The CIA reported that “Cuba’s successful use of air power and the apparent weakness of Pretoria’s air defences” highlighted the fact that Havana had achieved air superiority in southern Angola and northern Namibia. A few hours after the Cubans’ successful strike, the SADF destroyed a nearby bridge over the Cunene river. They did so, the CIA surmised, “to deny Cuban and Angolan ground forces easy passage to the Namibia border and to reduce the number of positions they must defend.” [7] Never had the danger of a Cuban advance into Namibia seemed more real. The last South African soldiers left Angola on August 30, before the negotiators had even begun to discuss the timetable of the Cuban withdrawal from Angola."

Yeah, the deal is only expected to come into effect in an hour's time. Though it could also take longer, even another day or two if there are issues.

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The source has no relation to Oryx OSINT

It's not necessarily about being more aggressive, but using the different strategic weapons systems. We've seen how useful FPV drones have been in Ukraine, for example. I'm guessing that a lot of senior members being killed by Israel prevented the deployment of these systems to the battlefield.

I think it's fair to say that the Israeli decapitation strikes (in the terrorist pager operation and leadership assassinations) hindered Hezbollah's strategic forces. First FPV drone attack was yesterday, first cruise missile attack a few days ago. These should have been operational from day 1 of the Israeli invasion.

Yeah I don't think people understand the huge amount of losses Hezbollah has taken since the September 17th Israeli terrorist pager operation. They have been suffering on average around 100 casualties (killed and wounded) a day since then, for a total of 7000 casualties between September 17th and today, by my calculations... This does not include Hezbollah causalities from before September 17th (over 2000 casualties by the same calculations), or the civilian cost of Israeli terror bombings. That is not sustainable long term.

Yeah it's too early to state if it's a victory, defeat or stalemate yet, the details are not public.

Yeah initially, especially with the 23 of November ATACMS attack, Russia tried to sweep it under the rug and de-escalate, saying that it was a Ukrainian ballistic missile attack. But then pictures of a destroyed S-400 air defence system's fire control radar from the 23rd emerged, and videos of the cluster bomb ATACMS attack on the 25th spread all over social media. So now Russia has to retaliate given the undeniable evidence of an ATACMS attack being public.

I posted on this yesterday

Lebanon: Local sources close to Hezbollah:

• The ceasefire talks are serious, there are small points that are being finalized
• Hamas and PIJ believe that after the ceasefire in Lebanon under the Lebanese state's conditions, the attention and light will go back to Gaza, and there's more chance to reach a ceasefire in Gaza

Twitter source

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The account is a reliable pro resistance source, in the past they have leaked and calculated Israeli casualty numbers for instance, and report often on Hezbollah operations and statements.

The ceasefire is expected to be announced at 20:00 UTC.

...

They don't even occupy that land, it's still under Russian control...

Critical support for scamming ignorant western tourists lol.

In negotiations, not finalised. Both sides will probably look to get in some final big hits before it's signed, if it's signed. For genocidal Israel that means destroying 20 civilian buildings in Lebanon.