minnow

Yeah and I just saw (after writing all that!) that Russia and China had warned the USA to not attack Iran, so I could absolutely be way off base there.

Edit: the logic had more to do with Russia's ambitions to reform their lost empire. Afaik it's widely believed that after Ukraine, Russia will go for Kazakhstan and possibly Afghanistan. It's less that I see Russia siding with the USA and Israel, and more that I think Russia will be opportunistic in its military expansion.

I think we can expect Iran to just keep on fighting back, but who I'm REALLY looking at now is Pakistan. They said that if anyone attacked Iran besides Israel, they would enter the war on the side of Iran. Even if America's participation in the war stopped here (not fucking likely) if Pakistan follows through with their threat then this escalation really, honest to God, could be the start of WW3.

Because here's the thing: India has been trying to goad Pakistan into their own war for a few months now. So here's my prediction, although be warned it gets a little crazy after the first 5 points:

• Pakistan attacks Israel as an ally of Iran
• India attacks Pakistan as an ally of Israel
• Afghanistan supports Pakistan with supplies and possibly troops, out of fear of India
• Israel continues to pressure Trump, who supports Israel the way the USA (used to) support Ukraine. But direct action is possible, as seen today.
• European support for Israel disintegrates, and they focus on Ukraine.
• Russia declares support for Israel. Now Afghanistan has aggressors to the North (Russia) and India (South) albeit with a buffer country in both directions. They're highly motivated to support both buffer countries, but also wary of the USA coming after them (again).
• Europe can no longer simply ignore Israel as it has become a second front in the war for Ukraine.
• Kazakhstan declares allyship with Afghanistan because they understand that Russia has to go through them to get to Afghanistan and they really really don't want that.
• Russian allies (Turkey, Belarús, Hungary) hamper the EU response.
• Trump takes advantage and makes a play for Greenland and Panama.
• NATO invokes Article 5 against the USA, uses this to justify attacking Russia (who is now aligned with the USA via Israel) directly IF they didn't decide to focus on America first (likely).
• Canada is part of NATO, talks Mexico into joining against the USA because it's the only way they stand a chance.
• China grasps at the opportunity to seize Taiwan and cement its claim to South China Sea.
• Japan, South Korea, and most is Southeast Asia and the South Pacific band together against China to drive them out of the South China Sea and Taiwan.
• Egypt and neighboring countries take strict control of the Red Sea, denying passage to ships belonging to Israel/Russia/China/et allies.

Ultimately, the two sides:

THE AGGRESSORS

• Israel
• Russia
• India
• America
• Hungary
• Turkey
• Belarús
• North Korea
• China

THE RESPONSE

• Iran
• Pakistan
• Afghanistan
• The EU (and the UK)
• Egypt and neighbors
• Canada
• Mexico
• Japan
• South Korea
• Most/all of Southeast Asia and the South Pacific
• South Africa

Oddly I see Australia sitting this one out, as their politics are far enough right to not want to go to war with their traditional allies (eg, the USA) but not left enough to support the response in any meaningful way. Something would have to force their involvement.

As for Central and South America, it's a mixed bag. Obviously some countries like El Salvador will support Trump, but I think most of them will defend Panama if they get involved at all. I certainly can't see Argentina and Chile being ok with just letting anybody pass Cape Horn.

Africa I just have no fucking clue. China has been involved in a lot of African countries in very big ways that the African countries aren't entirely happy about. They could take advantage of the circumstances to seize and nationalize Chinese assets within their borders, which puts them at odds with China/Russia/Israel/et allies and I think they would be pretty ok with that. South Africa in particular I think may take a more active role against the aggressors, given their position controlling the Cape of Good Hope.

Tldr if this plays out anything even remotely like what I've written here, and I really REALLY how it doesn't, we're all VERY FUCKED.

(This is a work of total conjecture, I'm probably wrong, so don't waste your breath telling me I'm wrong. That said some of my logic may not be obvious, so I'm happy to answer questions to clarify my thoughts)