I agree with the comic, just a kinda funny election year to post it.

Biden ran virtually unopposed in the primaries this year, despite his low approval numbers. And while you'd have to go back to the 19th century to find an incumbent denied the nomination, there have been serious challengers like Ted Kennedy to Jimmy Carter in more recent history. Seems the problem is also with lack of serious challengers, as well as lack of participation in the process from those looking for more significant change.

Pretty sure this post is a Nintendo Switch ad.

Found some better data than just R v. D.

In 2023 Pew has 33% of Republicans identifying as conservative and 25% of Democrats identifying as moderate or conservative, so Americans are somewhere between 33% and 58% conservative. Conversely, Americans are somewhere between 23% and 37% liberal.

I think you've vastly underestimated the number of conservative Americans.

get away from the boring Jedi

Goddamn the Acolyte was rough

Who is the Dick Cheney/Liz Cheney constituency though? Whose opinion will be swayed by the former VP of a deeply unpopular administration at its end? Or by a former Congresswoman with a infamous last name?

This is a nice-to-have for Democrats, but is it actually moving the needle with voters? Is it actually changing minds or increasing turnout? Harris and her advisors certainly think so, she's out there campaigning with Cheney actively, but where is the movement in the numbers, cause I'm not seeing it.

Energize the fucking progressives.

Yes. She could be capitalizing on popular progressive ideas, like healthcare or lowering grocery prices. These ideas have traction with groups beyond just leftists. She could have run an Obama style campaign, rather than be Biden 2.0. Instead we get Cheneys and "opportunity economy" for small business owners.

There are far more progressives than there are conservatives.

Doubt. Gallup has 48% of Americans identifying has Republican or Republican leaning. Unless you're telling me that self identifying Republicans are not conservative, but are in fact made up of mostly "moderates" or secret progressives, I don't know how else you came to this conclusion.

There might even be more progressives than there are moderates.

Also doubt. Where's the data on this?

HBO needs to make an old testament series. I need a GoT budget thrown at the destruction of Sodom and Gomorrah, after at least half an hour of truely understanding their wickedness.

What's the deal with the smallest of marginalized groups? They weren't important before, why do I have to care about them now? /s

$14.88

That's a comfortable lead no matter how you spin it.

My brother in anti-Trumpism, the only spin here is yours in saying her lead is comfortable.

Your original OpEd focused on national polling, so that's what I responded to. But yes, ignore the national polling, focus on the swing states, the electoral college is what counts.

From the same WaPo article as your picture is this swing state focused chart:

It shows the 2020 polling error, which was largely in Trump's favor in swing states (other than GA). If the same polling error still exists now in 2024, all that comfort disappears. The polling error was even greater in Trump's favor in 2016, however was in Obama's favor in 2012.

The point not being that Trump will outperform the polls this time, but that margins of error matter, and the reality could swing either way. With polling in so many states being within the margins, we're likely seeing the closest election of our lifetimes.

And all this isn't meant to be doom and gloom, but I ain't going into this election with Clinton levels of comfort, again. You're absolutely right on the game plan though. If you live in any of these states, your vote this time will likely be more consequential than it ever will be.

Just two days out he even had her probability of winning at just 64.2%, still better odds than what we're seeing for Harris right now. And you're right, he was the only reputable poll aggregator who was making downward adjustments of that magnitude, that late in the race.