this post was submitted on 10 Oct 2024
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That surplus is a deep well but it's not infinite. They have to cut it out eventually, and if your theory is correct then they'll cut the military aid to Ukraine sooner than later because it wouldn't make sense to send them the more modern equipment once all the stockpiled rusty weapons run out.
This is going to take a long time because of the way the equipments slowly trickle in, almost seem like they are deliberately taking their time.
Let’s take HIMARS for example, there are over 600 launchers built. The US had sent 16 launchers to Ukraine, and another 16 promised still slowly being delivered.
Same with M1 Abrams main battle tanks - 31 has been delivered to Ukraine, while there are several thousands left in storage in the US.
The munitions, on the other hand, do get depleted at a much faster rate, but there is no actual plan to replenish these stocks. Because unlike what many people think, America cannot win a military and industrial confrontation. A currency war is the only front where America truly has a chance, and what they’re doing now is translating outdated military and industrial capacity into financial strength.
I still think that the slow trickle of many different types of equipment is mostly about seeing what modern Russian equipment does to them. A big bloody R&D exercise.