this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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One year on. Hundreds of thousands are dying or dead, millions are displaced, the Middle East is undergoing its greatest changes in a generation, Iran has directly attacked Israel twice in one year, and Yemen has proven that the US Navy ain't worth shit. We are the closest we have been to nuclear war (discounting accidents) in decades, but also the fall of Israel.

Because one day, the prisoners of a concentration camp paraglided over a wall.


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Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 75 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (6 children)

If you think about it, the US believes that they live in a Dark Forest universe. They truly believe that they have to annihilate their opponents before these emerging states/powers surpass their own technologically and escape their sphere of influence.

I am seriously starting to believe that this is the reason Obama likes the Three Body Problem series so much, while taking the wrong lessons from the books, which was a cautionary tale about how the most “rational” belief of destroying your opponents before they have the capacity to do it against you may let you overpower them in the short run, but ultimately lead to the mutually assured destruction of our world. It emphasized that a bit of irrationality, naivety and delusional about our opponents are sometimes needed to put a stop into this chain of madness.

We’ve been very lucky that Putin, who is in control of thousands of nukes enough to blow up the world several times, does not see the world in the same Dark Forest state as the US does. Putin is naive and even delusional about a rapprochement with an imperialist West for years, and yet it was exactly this attitude that kept the peace for as long as we have (even with the war in Ukraine, there is a lot of restraint from escalating further).

[–] Voidance@hexbear.net 50 points 1 month ago (4 children)

It is strange how the history of the US seems to be a history of its enemies underestimating its resolve and capacity for violence.

[–] SupFBI@hexbear.net 31 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Underestimating its brutality and evil, more like. Willing to do or encorouage the vilest deeds imaginable to maintain capitalist hedgemony.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 23 points 1 month ago

It reminds me of the recent Speak No Evil horror films (both the Danish original and the American remake) in the same way that the US will keep pushing your boundaries and see how much you’d let them get away with it. Maybe there are some hard truths in those movies.

[–] NephewAlphaBravo@hexbear.net 17 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

The US used its violence to do a good thing exactly once and it involved attacking itself. And even that turned out to just be disciplining itself so it could continue doing violence.

[–] Frogmanfromlake@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago

Probably because a lot of the types who wouldn’t get labeled as “extremist.”

[–] Outdoor_Catgirl@hexbear.net 23 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I mean, an invader who wants to limit your technology so they can kill you is exactly what amerikkkans want to do to China

[–] Boredom@hexbear.net 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

I am 99 percent sure that book is written for the Chinese equivalent of chuds.

[–] commiewithoutorgans@hexbear.net 2 points 1 month ago (1 children)

In what way do you mean? Like to convince the chuds that they are wrong and the US is evil?

[–] Boredom@hexbear.net 2 points 1 month ago

More like in a dengist era best era, always keep your head down and never ever display strength outside of your own borders.

[–] Fishroot@hexbear.net 22 points 1 month ago

Actually Obama likes liu cixin’s books not for the geopolitical aspect but for how the main characters perceive women in the books

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 19 points 1 month ago (2 children)

I think Putin is wising up. Russia's recent development of anti satellite weaponry and potentially space deployed nuclear weapons, show that, as well as the change to Russia's nuclear doctrine and recent statements given by Putin.

[–] GlueBear@hexbear.net 14 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Russia's recent development of anti satellite weaponry and potentially space deployed nuclear weapons,

Excuse me, what? I thought this was sci-fi musk-esqe investor talk

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 14 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

No, it's definitely not. The next frontier of war is space. This frontier was officially opened in November last year, when Israel used the Arrow-3 system to intercept a Ghadr-110 ballistic missile launched by Yemen at Eliat. The interception took place in the Exosphere, over 600km above sea level. The first instance of warfare in space. There have been more exoatmospheric interceptions since, most notably during Iran's ballistic missile retaliatory attacks. This allowed us to get videos of an exoatmospheric interception. This one is from October, and this one was from April. You can see the large blue to purple plume it produces. In theory, these Arrow-3 interceptors could also be used to destroy enemy satellites.

This is not even mentioning Boeing's X-37b unmanned spacecraft operated by the United States Space Force, which can stay in orbit for years at a time, and two days ago performed an aerobraking manoeuvre, dipping slightly into the Earth's atmosphere to change it's orbit. There is much speculation around the true role and mission of this aircraft, with theories ranging from anti satellite capabilities, to being able to repair and modify allied satellites, to it being nuclear armed and part of a Fractional Orbit Bombardment System (FOBS).

China have also been testing a FOBS/Hypersonic Glide Vehicle combination system, and much has been talked about Russia's anti satellite weaponry from the Soviet era to now, from satellites that can kinetically attack other satellites or de-orbit them, to space deployed nuclear weapons that could disable a mass amount of satellites in the proximity of the explosion. Russia's new ICBM could also double in function as a FOBS, with the ability to stay in low earth orbit, before de-orbiting and returning to a ballistic trajectory. Such technology has been worked on by Russia since the Soviet era, with the GR-1 missile concept from the 1960s being the first known instance of a nation working on FOBS. They had 18 working FOBS capable missiles that were decommissioned due to an agreement with the USA.

[–] Commiejones@hexbear.net 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Fractional Orbit Bombardment System

We are so headed for Kessler's Syndrome. Its the only defence against this sort of thing.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 6 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

It's actually not as bad as it sounds. It's called a "fractional" system as it never completes a full orbit of the earth. It involves launching the system into orbit, around 150km above sea level, where it stays in orbit moving towards the target, until the re-entry vehicle or hypersonic glide vehicle de-orbits and homes in on the target. It's useful for getting around early warning radars for a decapitation first strike, for instance Russia or China could target the US by having the system orbit over the South pole and hit the US on the blindside, avoiding the early warning radars in the north. Big disadvantage is the accuracy, the median error radius for Soviet era FOBS systems was over 5km/3 miles, so it was only suited for nuclear first strikes. That's why China wants to use a hypersonic glide vehicle as part of the system, to improve on the accuracy and further reduce chances of interception during the terminal phase. This graphic provides a nice visualisation:

[–] Commiejones@hexbear.net 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

The issue is that with todays computing power these things could just be lurking up there for years waiting for the go signal.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 7 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

The X-37B unmanned orbital space craft already does that. It goes on classified missions nobody knows about and orbits the Earth for years at a time. Some Russian sources speculate that it could carry nuclear weapon. But that's quite different from a fractional system by definition, though there is also speculation that it could be used in that manner.

[–] Commiejones@hexbear.net 8 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Exactly my point. If multiple of these systems are set up by conflicting powers we are basically living in a doomsday machine that is just waiting to kill us all. The only solution would be to make orbiting earth impossible with Kessler's syndrome.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 6 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago)

Yeah I get it now, sorry for being so slow. Kessler syndrome would make the usage of any of these weapons impossible, I understand now.

So far only the USA has an spacecraft that can orbit for years at a time in the X-37B, the Chinese and Russian systems are very much fractional, they are incapable of performing multiple orbits from what I understand, they are based off of ballistic missiles and don't consist of an spacecraft like the X-37B.

In general the space frontier is extremely worrying and I don't see how it de-escalates, the potential for Kessler syndrome could function as a sort of mutually assured destruction? But that opens up another avenue of attack in space nukes that could deliberately be used to instigate Kessler syndrome. But that just encourages the adversary to potentially neutralise the space nuke, which then encourages the holders of the space nuke to detonate it. Which is why I don't see how de-escalation could work in space at this time. The feedback loops don't work in the same way MAD does on Earth.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 10 points 1 month ago

They already exist:

The ASAT test in November is the latest in a series of such actions by Russia. The missile used in the test, Nudol, has been tested several times in the past without a hit-to-kill mission. At the 2021 Reagan National Defense Forum, U.S. Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.) noted that Russia had attempted to test its ground-launched ASAT missile “several times in recent years and failed, so it was predictable that they would keep trying until they scored a hit.”12 The latest hit-to-kill demonstration indicates that Russia may have perfected its ASAT missile.

In 2014, the Russian Olymp-K satellite demonstrated co-orbital ASAT capabilities in the geostationary orbit where several critical military command-and-control satellites operate.13 Additionally, Russia has fielded ground-based lasers and a range of satellite-jamming systems to deny and degrade the capacity of weapons that rely on satellited-enabled information. These weapons are detailed in Russian military literature as a vital mechanism to eliminate Russian vulnerabilities to Western precision weapons.

Russia has also tested co-orbital ASAT systems that target satellites beyond low-earth orbit. In October 2017, three Russian satellites—Kosmos-2519, Kosmos-2521, and Kosmos-2523—conducted high-velocity orbital maneuvers. In January 2020, two Russian satellites, Kosmos-2542 and Kosmos-2543, performed coordinated, close-approach orbital maneuvers in the vicinity of a U.S. military reconnaissance satellite, the KH-11. Six months later, in July 2020, the Kosmos-2543 satellite fired a high-velocity projectile into outer space. Such a projectile could act as a potent ASAT weapon. U.S. Space Force commander Gen. John Raymond has described the orbital experiments performed by these satellites as “Russian nesting doll” satellites and claimed they “exhibited characteristics of a weapon system.”

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

This Putin?

From April 11, 2024

"Unfortunately, we have seen a series of strikes on our energy facilities recently and were forced to respond. I want to emphasize that, for humanitarian reasons, we did not carry out any strikes in the winter; we did not want to leave social institutions, hospitals, and so on without power supply. But after a series of strikes on our energy facilities, we are forced to respond," Putin said.

https://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/news/2024/04/11/1031347-rossiya-vinuzhdena-otvechat

He’s too soft and that has emboldened both Ukraine and the US over time.

[–] aaaaaaadjsf@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

Link gives me a 404, but if this is about Russia's campaign against Ukraine's energy infrastructure which started around that timeframe, with the attack on the Trypilska thermal power plant on that exact date of April 11, this attack used technology that was still in development during the Ukraine war. The kh-69 stealth subsonic cruise missiles used, were still in the developmental phase as of September 2023, and the most likely launch platform in the Su-57 stealth fighter aircraft is also very new. Could Russia have carried out a similar attack using Kinzhal or Iskander-M missiles? Possibly, but the chances of success could have been lower with such.

But the fact that Russia did respond still showed that Putin is getting harsher. I think he's learning that being softer leads to a more dangerous situation where potentially the whole world could be at stake with a potential nuclear war. That's why I cite the change in the nuclear doctrine and his warning to NATO countries over potential long range weapon deployments to Ukraine as important. It's a clearly defined red line that got the US and NATO to back down and abandon plans to give Ukraine permission to use long range weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. Thus, for now, preventing an attack on Russian territory in which NATO servicemembers took part, making the world safer and stopping any potential escalation before it starts. Yes it would've been better if this shift happened 10 years ago, but unfortunately it didn't work out that way.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 8 points 1 month ago

Link fixed fyi

[–] AssortedBiscuits@hexbear.net 12 points 1 month ago (1 children)

If you think about it, the US believes that they live in a Dark Forest universe. They truly believe that they have to annihilate their opponents before these emerging states/powers surpass their own technologically and escape their sphere of influence.

That's just the Thucydides Trap which isn't actually real but the US operates as if it were real. The original English article about the Thucydides Trap predates the English translation of The Three-Body Problem by around 2 years.

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 10 points 1 month ago

It’s worse than that. It’s the US thinks what China thinks because they took the wrong lessons from the book. Truly a “chain of suspicion” if you ask me.

wow this is just like genshin impact when celestia drops celestial nails on rapidly developing civilizations