this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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There's no need.
Really.
If Trump does what he says he was going to do-and I don't doubt he will--then the economy will crash on its own.
Tariffs will raise prices, and will drive inflation. Why will tariffs raise prices? Because the people selling will just add the price of the tariff to the goods sold. And unless the tariffs are the result of a new law, any incoming president can cancel them. That means that it would be a very risky environment to try and build domestic production in. The place I work for uses aluminum extrusion; we get it from a domestic supplier, and they get all their raw aluminum stock from China. When tariffs were enacted on Chinese aluminum, our supplier passed the cost on to us, and we had to raise our prices to account for our increased costs. So our customers had to pay more to get exactly the same product.
Deporting all of the undocumented immigrants will mean that we'll suddenly have lots of jobs not getting done; most produce is picked by undocumented immigrants, a ton of general construction is done by undocumented immigrants, most meat-packing plants are full of undocumented immigrants laborers. We'll suddenly be a negative unemployment; there won't be enough workers in the workforce to fill demand. That means wages will have to rise, which will drive inflation, and housing costs will rise sharply because new construction will be so expensive with undocumented immigrants. One of the people I work with is undocumented; if he gets deported, then we're up shit creek, because no one else can do his job as efficiently as he can, if anyone can do it at all (yay, lean manufacturing...).
I would place a financial bet on the economy crashing if Trump actually does what he says he will.
Brexit was supposed to make farm workers' wages higher. The EU workers left, and crops rotted on the fields, because Brits didn't want those jobs, no matter what wages the farmers were offering. So they had to tell the EU workers they were welcome again and introduce special visas to lure them back.