this post was submitted on 17 Nov 2024
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You don't think that 1980 chart has a very different shape? The current chart is almost flat from 20-60, while the 1980 chart is actually pyramid shaped, with the steepness is only slightly sharper past 60. And matches the steepness of the range from 25-50. Nobody talks about a 25-year-old die off.
You're better off charting the actuarial tables to convey the data you're trying to talk about (death rates), rather than relying on a stat that is influenced by birth rates and death rates in an opaque way.
That's the baby boom moving up the chart. It's 1980, they're 15-35. You can clearly see the normal population before the baby boom and it's fall off.
Yes, exactly my point. The boomer generation itself made the population pyramid look different at every stage of its life, which is why the 1980 chart looks so different from the 2023 chart. When you introduce a cohort that has its own slope from birth statistics, the shape of the drop off at 60 is confounded by the preexisting shape of the slope before they entered old age.
So the appropriate method of isolating the variable that shows what you call a "die off" would be to just pull up the actuarial tables that show what percentage of 60, 61, 62 year olds, etc., die that year. Not to compare how many of those there are as a percent of overall population.