this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2024
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It wasn't about how much the states electoral votes matter, but how much a single persons vote matters in the entire election.
If 50.000 people in California changes their vote it hardly matters. If 50.000 people in wyoming do that, it heavily influences the outcome of who wyoming votes for.
1 person in wyoming matters more than 1 person in California.
How electoral votes matter is the whole point. If it was done by pure population they would have equal voting power. They do not have equal voting power because the electoral votes matter.
1 person in Wyoming makes more difference in how Wyoming election turns out. Less population, more influence.
There are 538 electoral votes divided over 50 states
Wyoming has 3
California has 54
Wyoming has 584k people
California has 39m people
In Wyoming each voters has 5.137E-6 electoral votes to cast
In California each voters has 8.98305085E−7 electoral votes to cast
Now winner takes all electoral votes aside. Someone in Wyoming is contributing more electoral votes to their candidate than someone in California.
This is what's always argued when talking about voting power based on population
If the candidate needs 270 to win, if I am able to give more to a candidate with my vote, my vote is more powerful in a way.
There has been two elections decided by 3 electoral votes. 1876 Hayes and 1796 Adams. Total electoral votes at the time were 261 and 138, respectively. It would be equivalent to winning by 6 and 12 votes today with the 538 electoral votes. So while it was 3, those 3 votes meant a lot more back then when it was 3/261 or 3/138.
Like I said earlier, yes, Wyoming voters have more influence on who wins their electoral votes and they have more electoral votes per person
California with 53 electoral votes is a 106 point swing. Taking 53 electoral votes from the winning candidate and giving it to the runner up would change the majority of all the elections.
Think of it this way:
2 states just California and Wyoming. California has 53 votes, Wyoming 3.
56 votes total. Need 29 votes to win.
Biggest issue the candidates are running on is spending money on beaches.
Candidate A: For spending
Candidate B: Against spending
California wants A, Wyoming wants B.
If what you're saying is true, then Wyoming should have the most power in this election because each of their votes count more than a person in California.
584k deciding 3 electoral votes vs 39m deciding 53 electoral votes
Yet every single person in Wyoming could vote candidate B, and it's still going to be up to California to decide
So would you want to be a voter in Wyoming or California?
California because your vote doesn't matter in Wyoming. No matter who you vote for in Wyoming, California is going to decide. You want to be able to cast your vote in California to hopefully swing the state
If you gave those 584k Wyoming voters the chance to not cast their vote in Wyoming but instead cast their vote in California against the 39m, they would be wise to do it. Doesn't matter where 3/56 electoral votes go, it matters much more where the 53/56 electoral votes go.
So yes, while each voter in California has less effect on the California electoral votes. California has more effect on the total electoral votes.
Being able to participate in a more important election is worth more than having more influence in an election that is next to meaningless.
tldr
TLDR:
Only 2 states to simplify things
Wyoming 3 EV
California 53 EV
56 EV total, 29 EV need to win
Wyoming still has more EV per capita
California wants Candidate B
Wyoming wants Candidate A
Who decides the election? (California)
If what you're saying is that the smaller population with more EV per capita has more pull in an election, then Wyoming would actually have a shot at making Candidate A win by themselves.
California has 53/538 EV.
California controls 10% of the total EVs
Wyoming controls .06%
TLDR again:
As a voter, being able to effect 10% of the total EVs is more powerful than being able to effect .06%.
You're missing the point. The viewpoint in the argument is from a single voter. One vote in wyoming weighs more than one vote in California
So you're saying that a single voter in Wyoming voting for Candidate A means more than a single voter in California voting for Candidate A?
In order for any of Wyoming votes to even matter, the two candidates would have to be at 268-267 and need Wyoming to be the tie breaker. It would have to come down as a perfect swing state.
California's 53 EV always matters. Harris had to win California to even have a chance at winning.
Neither candidate had to win Wyoming to win
Odds that California comes down to a 20m vs 20m tie or Wyoming coming down to a 250k vs 250k tie are basically the same.
Even if Wyoming was tied like that and 1 voter could make a difference. It would still have to be 268-267 EVs to even matter
It's possible to win the election with 22% of voters. Even if 78% vote against it. There's a great CGP Grey Video on it.
This is not a discussion about how likely it is to happen, but that the electoral college is unbalanced because NOT EVERY VOTE WEIGHS THE SAME.
If you had been reading my comments, you'd know I know the electoral college is unbalanced.
It being unbalanced is the whole reason it exists
To make sure the high populated states don't always get what they want and give smaller populated states more voice
This is a discussion about how likely one voter is to affect the election
You are trying to make it not about that
The question is, "Does someone voting in Wyoming have more "voting power" than someone in California?"
It's like if I wanted Candidate A to win. Would it be better if I lived in Wyoming or California?
I've said before that someone in Wyoming has more EV per capita. "NOT EVERY VOTE WEIGHS THE SAME."
My point is one voter swinging Wyoming and then Wyoming swinging the EC, is never going to happen before one voter swings California and California's EVs just mattering like they always do.
Lower population does not automatically mean more "voting power"
That Pennsylvania, 19 EC 13m Pop., has more "voting power" than both California and Wyoming
Pennsylvania has 1/3 population of California. But 1/3 EC would be 17.5.
A single voter in Pennsylvania has higher chances of being the deciding vote than in California, and Pennsylvania gets more EV per capita.
19 EC is enough to realistically change the election. 3 EC is not.
That's why Pennsylvania is a "swing state" and Wyoming is not.