this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2025
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Bulletins and News Discussion from January 27th to February 2nd, 2025 - Tariffs in Trump's Imperium - COTW: Colombia
(hexbear.net)
Image is of Colombian President Gustavo Petro giving a speech at the UN in 2022.
Trump has arrived in office with the force of an avalanche; ~~ending~~ slowing a genocide on the one hand, while simultaneously promising a total nightmare for minorities and the poor throughout and outside the United States on the other hand. [edited for clarity; I do not actually think Trump has ended the Palestinian genocide obviously, I was making a joke - but the ceasefire is a genuine improvement in conditions for millions of people right now who are on the edge of death, so it cannot be dismissed]
It's still far too early to truly compare and contrast his imperial strategy with Biden's, but initial signs show that there does appear to be somewhat of a reorientation. Biden was famous for being two-faced; ostensibly offering aid and stability, while also blowing up your pipeline to ensure you did not actually have an alternative to his idea. Trump, meanwhile, seems only really capable of aggression, threatening several "allied" nations with what may as well be sanctions because of the economic harm they'd do. I suspect we'll be debating for a long time how much of this can be attributed to the specific characteristics of Trump, or whether he merely embodies the zeitgeist of imperial decline - a wounded empire lashing out with extreme violence to try and convince everybody, including themselves, that they can still be the world imperialist hegemon.
I'll admit it: I did not believe that Trump would actually try and go ahead with putting tariffs on basically anybody who annoys him. And while the threat could still be empty in regards to countries like China and Canada, Colombia is the first indication of the potential of his strategy. Despite some fiery words from President Petro, after Trump's administration revealed the punishment if Colombia did not agree, it appears that Colombia will in fact be accepting deported migrants after all. It's funny how that works.
Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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The Trouble With Tariffs: What You Think About Prices Matters to the Fed
I think this offers a key insight into why Trump is threatening tariffs on everyone. This is how the federal government can gain control over the Federal Reserve monetary policy. By forcing the market to anticipate inflation, the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates - Trump then controls the timing of rate cut by lowering the tariffs when he sees fit.
Most likely, Trump will use the interest rate as leverage in his negotiation with China. He’d said he would visit China in the first 100 days. As I have mentioned before, China desperately needs the Fed to lower the rate so they can refinance away their mounting local government debt. So this could be a very powerful leverage if used correctly.
There's too many moving pieces for them to manage the fed through tarriffs. Consumer spending is already starting to cool, and if tariffs hit, companies are going to be a lot more willing now to pass it along than they were pre-pandemic, which is just going to cut spending further. That's without even considering how many US companies can afford the current interest rates given their capital structures, and what all of this will do to unemployment.
Federal Reserve set to repel Donald Trump’s calls for deep rate cuts
We will know soon enough today.
I'm not saying we are getting a rate cut immediately, I'm just saying there's way too many moving pieces for Trump to be able to drive this process. Whatever comes out of the FMOC meeting today has been baked in already. I'm not even sure Trump has a coherent strategy on any of this. He's calling for rate cuts now to help domestic business but also wants to use tarriffs to keep rates high so China has to negotiate with the US?
That’s why I mentioned Trump visiting China in the first 100 days. It’s not going to be a long term solution.
Of course, China can try to call Trump’s “bluff” (we don’t even know if it’s a bluff) but betting on something like that is inherently risky for a huge economy.
We’ve seen how Europe tried to call Russia’s “bluff” by sanctioning Russian oil and gas. That few months of unpredictable price shock was enough to drag Europe into a long recession (German academics said 5% GDP cut is fine back then…).
A few months of high tariffs against Mexico and Canada? If you’re government, how much are you willing to bet on that it won’t have long term consequences to your own economy?
He's going to 1) raise tarrifs, which will drive inflation (along with other inflationary moves like cutting taxes for the rich) but 2) massively cut federal jobs, which will raise unemployment. The fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment as well as price stability, so he's hoping they will prioritize employment and cut interest rates.