As I recently said to a friend: "I fucking hate being right."
And he said "I fucking hate you being right."
(he was never in disagreement, he just still had a sliver of hope)
this post was submitted on 23 Jan 2025
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When the exit polls are off, 300 years of exit polls suggest the ballots are off. When many states flunk basic stats when doing tests with precinct size and candidate ratios, generations of using these suggest the ballot counts are off.
So what is happening here is that somehow the ballot counts are off for several important states. And most USA politically active people look at this, what I said, and think I just spoke Greek.
There has long been a disconnect between the politically chattering social classes and the nerds who have been saying the tech here is too easily manipulated. I have yet, in the last decade, to see a political commentator who knows what they are talking about when discussing this. People like me have been frozen out of the discussion in both major parties since before 2016. It’s why I stopped being active in the Texas Democratic Party when I could not influence them a few years ago.
I’m not wrong in any of my points; and it sounds like you are generalizing a very complex picture and throwing out a few terms for emphasis.
There is much much more to all that, I promise you. If you or the reader is curious to learn more, but don’t need a tech heavy approach. Learn more about the history of exit polling or learn how the United Nations tests for ballot stuffing. Then apply it to a selection of states of your choice. You will find about a 2:3 ratio of questionable results.
Then learn how other democracies count their ballots and check out the sane tests performed there. The uk has an easy to understand system if need to compare.
Ballot stuffing is nothing new in USA politics; all political parties have indulged in it since the founding of this county, many people usually turn a blind eye. But sometimes more criticism did occur. What is different now in the last few decades is how it’s done, and how it’s dismissed and overlooked .
This discussion is happening because USA politics is weird. I’m totally freaked out I still, after many years, have to take a kindergarten explanation to many, not just here.
Look, bottom line is if you have to trust the vote counters then there is cheating. Period
The exit poll isn't the canonical vote count. The ballots are. Exit polls are subject to sampling bias or other statistical anomalies. Ballots are not, because there is no sampling. The complete set of ballots is the vote.
A ballot count might not match up with the ballots themselves, but an exit poll would be at most weak evidence of that, especially when the ballots still exist in physical form to be recounted, in plain view of both major parties.
The "tech" is literal pieces of paper in 44 states, and most parts of 5 more. If you're complaining about DRE machines, then you should cheer on the fact that they're being phased out and that they're only in wide use in 1 out of 50 states.
And if you're complaining about ballot stuffing then you're no longer complaining about tech at all, and are talking about the physical integrity of ballot boxes. Go ahead and do the audits there, but show your work instead of complaining about electronic voting.
Show my work ? You know it’s been done many times already? My point was, that anyone can verify it.
Anyway, there are so many issues, untruths, misunderstandings and downright denial here there is nothing to really reply about. I’m not saying you are deliberately acting in bad faith, but shows how much bs is circulating around and how invested people are to not follow common sense. Or understand some basic truths, just science, math and tech truths.