Image is of Gazans breaking their fast with the Iftar meal during the ongoing Ramadan.
Due to a request by @miz@hexbear.net, this thread's COTW is Qatar.
The ceasefire deal broke down early last week after Israel unilaterally changed the terms of the agreement and then blamed Hamas for not meeting them. Violence against civilians has rapidly accelerated to pre-ceasefire levels, with many hundreds dead already, aid once again cut off, and Israeli soldiers once again entering and occupying the attritional labyrinth that is Gaza.
I'm not yet in a position to make any solid predictions or analysis, as the geopolitical situation in and around Israel has changed fairly substantially over the last 6 months; in some ways benefiting Israel, and in other ways not. We know for sure how Hamas and Ansarallah are reacting (thankfully, with open hostility to both Israel and the United States), but the state of Hezbollah has been a giant question mark for months now, and precisely what Iran plans to do (beyond the usual level of supplying weaponry and intelligence to all the allies it can) is unknown. Syria will be almost certainly be a big wildcard, and we'll have to see if the compradors in Damascus can weather the storm.
Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
Please check out the HexAtlas!
The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Fortunately for them they won't have to. Why tf would Russia invade Poland?
The euros are truly huffing their own farts if they think that. Seriously, no honest attempt has been made by the west to understand Russia's motivation for the war in Ukraine.
Western media has been inundated with asinine stories relating to hypothetical WWIII level events. It’s designed to sow fear, and should never be mistaken as having anything to do with reality
I'm curious too... Is there any indication that his ambitions lie beyond Ukraine? Like seriously apart from the vague so called election interference and so. Because geopolitical rivalry aside it would be a nightmarish endeavour
People don’t realize just how long Putin has been at the helm - over 25 years now. And in that time, the only places Russia has ever invaded before Ukraine are I think Chechnya and Dagestan - both very small, both within the former USSR and for both it wasn’t as simple as “Putin grab land”, lots of other shit going on there. Given how long he’s been there if he’s bent on rolling the tanks through Eastern Europe he hasn’t shown any indication yet that he wants to do that. And the euros can’t even provide a coherent explanation of why Putin would want to take over the Baltics or Poland other than “he eeeevil and wants to rebuild the Russian empire!” Just completely decoupled from reality.
Objectively, Europe is more likely to be invaded by the US than they are Russia.
Seriously and conquering land is one thing. Holding on to them is anothet and europe is a whole lotta land. There is also the inni tinsy little matter in all these war games. I can't put my finger on... Ah FUCKING NUKES.
The way so many American's and Euros are just utterly indifferent to the existence of nukes and MAD is horrifying. They don't view nukes as real things that are a factor in war and diplomacy, and if htey don't believe in nukes in a real immediate way they might blithely use them, or provoke the use of them.
I do not see these discussions. I always see navy etc scenarios none of the nuke discussions. Its always an afterthought for some reason.
Even annexing the whole Ukraine just isn't a realistic option for Russia.
Just imagine trying to do a "US in Afghanistan" but without the USD infinite money glitch, while NATO props up resistance fighters.
I'd argue that's better for russia long term over west Ukraine allowing NATO troops. The geography is way too yielding and it is WW3 waiting to happen. They really have to ensure demilitarization and neutrality if Ukraine is going to get out of this still independent.
No. It's just CIA propaganda. If you listen to any of their ambassadors talk they always talk about rule of law. Their grievances with the US is never ever mentioned in US media.
He spent 8 years trying to return the Donbas, but the Danes were to racist to accept his condition of "don't kill everyone there"
There just so evil and orcish and Putin is the Jonkler he's crazy but that's okay NATO exists and would Article 5 a war so Putin will never try to invade but we have to be ready because he's five seconds from invading Poland and Finland simultaneously.
It's simple really.
Schrödinger's military "defense" compact.
Eastern Europe's whole mythology for justifying their own existence has been warped in to fighting a righteous war against a Soviet Union that doesn't exist.
"Hold out for X weeks until the Americans show up" is the strategic defense plan for a Russian invasion for pretty much every Baltic and Nordic state.
In a just world someone would do something to stop the perfidious Poles, but we do not live in a just world
The depths of anti-communist delusion are fully on display when Euros think that a fragmentary rump state can or would do what the USSR never attempted at the height of it's global super-power
I think they know it won't happen but they still have to pretend that it's a strong possibility because to say otherwise would imply that russia has an actual calculus for why it does anything instead of pure barbarity and malice
it's just CIA propaganda