this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2025
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Don't expect a miracle, Iran has neglected their air force too long, sanctions really hurt them in this department. As shown in the recent India vs Pakistan air engagement, modern air warfare is not fought between jet vs jet, but a whole networked system involving AWACS, ground radars, satellites and long range missiles. For Iran to modernize their air force, it will require at least a decade. Iran will probably not have enough time to fully integrate and have fully trained pilots and crews before the situation gets hot again.
Another important factor that many don't realize is that China and Iran relations are not that close, Iran is closer to India than China, and that is an important factor. There's no question that Iran has been heavily infiltrated by spies and moles. During the 12 day war, there were reports that some of these captured spies were Indian Nationals. Unconfirmed, but not surprising, Hindutvas are big Zionists. Russia and China both condemned Israel's attack on Iran, but India stayed silent. China will not want their military secrets falling into the hands of Indian spies.
Iran will be facing an IDF that has been using top Western jets and systems for a very long time. If China sells Iran jets, it will be the J-10CE, these were designed to go against F-16s and possibly F-15s. China will not sell Iran their J-35, so Iran will still have no match for the IDF F-35s.