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Burning a new ROM is just as hard fora regular user as jailbreaking an iPhone, so practically it doesn’t make a difference if android is open-source or not.
Also, even though core android is OSS, what you and i run on our phones heavily depends on the play framework which is Google proprietary. Amazon has tried and failed to fork android before with its fire devices and that hasn’t worked.
FYI GrapheneOS is trivial to install (you don't need to do all that exploit and root nonsense you used to have to!) and runs entirely without Google Play Services (unless you want to install them in a less-invasive way, which is also officially supported)
Thanks, bug. It’s gotten better for those of us with some background, but I’d definitely not say it’s trivial for a regular android user to use. GrapheneOS only supports Google Pixels launched after August 2020 for starters. The recommended easy way to install GrapheneOS still needs you to OEM unlock and may need a factory reset as well. Jailbreaking might technically be harder, but this is hard enough.
The only way something like this can become mainstream is if popular smartphone manufacturers intentionally supported an alternative distribution (like GrapheneOS), which i don’t see happening for business reasons including the possibility of a fallout with Google.
Even though android is open-source, the hurdles for running an alternative are around the proprietary stuff we depend on in the ecosystem.
I'd say having a Pixel is the only real blocker, as unlocking the bootloader and factory resetting the phone are both a couple of clicks in the settings that anyone can follow. I remember the days of rooting and installing cyanogenmod on early Android phones and compared to that the process today is really trivial!
You’re glossing over a lot of complexity that the GrapheneOS team is doing for you. The reason that they only support Pixels is because Google is relatively open. Their FAQ says the following:
You can’t expect Android users to be able to en masse move to a fork if Google decides to close the tap.
I have LineageOS (CyanogenMod) running on one of my spare phones and it is easier now than it used to be ten years ago (speaking from experience), but you still need to have a phone that is supported, and the OEM needs to allow unlocking. I had to wait a couple of weeks to be able to unlock. So it’s definitely not trivial.
Not meaning to gloss over, it's their hard work that makes it a nice experience! It's always been the case that some devices are more moddable than others, comparing the ones that are simplest is the only comparison that really makes sense though.
As for users moving en masse it obviously wouldn't be trivial, but the theoretical removal of side-loading wouldn't happen overnight so there would hopefully be plenty of time for more solutions to pop up.