this post was submitted on 24 Jun 2023
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What are the chances this will impact the war in Ukraine in a positive way for Ukraine? Will we possibly see an end to the war soon?
Zero chances it will end the war. Russians are used to swapping out regimes all the time.
This is just an infighting between two criminals, whoever wins is not going to be better for anyone.
Wanger is war fighting force, they're not a peace-keeping unit, they'll keep the war going if it benefits them.
and then things got worse.
Things are gonna get worse before they, uh, get worse.
The same regime has been in power 24 years.
That's nothing in the whole scheme. We're talking centuries here, not the last 24 years. Stalin, Gorbachev, Lenin, Bolsheviks, Romanov, Czars, Cath the Great, etc.
Ok you could say the same thing about France. Also you repeated the same groups multiple times. The Romanovs were Tsars. Stalin Lenin and Gorbachev were all Bolsheviks, and although there was a struggle when Stalin took over Lenin to Stalin was just the passing of the torch between one revolutionary leader to the next. So really your long list of regime changes were: Catherine the Great from 1796, the Tsars who lost power in 1917, and Gorbachev who brought the USSR down in 1991. I'll give you that Russia went through a period of intense chaos in the 90s between the dissolution of the USSR and when Putin took over. But 3 regime changes over 250 years isn't that much.
Russia pulled out of WW1 because the Bolsheviks successfully took power and didn’t want to fight. Let’s hope history repeats itself.
I don't think it would though - they have limited supplies and people, and if they take Russia they'll need all of that to keep it. Fighting a second war at the same time would be more costly than it's worth I think.
They're not used to running a country, either. That's a different skillset than their usual, so they may run into extra problems there.
It doesn't benefit them. They've lost tons of people and they're up against a determined adversary swimming in NATO firepower.
I believe it ensures a much much sooner end, yes, but exactly when depends on who wins.
If Putin wins his authority will be significantly weakened, his army will be significantly weakened, and it's likely he'd have to pull more of them away to ensure his leadership and security even after Wagner is defeated.
If Wagner wins the army will likely be immediately recalled out of Ukraine, they will want to confirm the army's submission to new rule and ensure no counter coup attempts, but also it would be very easy to blame Putin for everything and win popularity with the Russian people by bringing back soldiers who would likely have died pointlessly.
Crimea, however, may be a point of contention, depending on the opinions of the winners.
100% true. Putin will survive and will be forced to come to the negotiating table. The war in Ukraine will be over in a couple of months.
I guess I don't really care who wins as long as the war ends sooner, and no nukes are used.
I'm also no military strategist, but it seems like a good time for Ukraine to start pushing their counter offensive into overdrive, no?
Rushing can also do more damage than helping; it all depends on what is happening for sure.
However, it is a double-edge sword here. One is that they don't need to waste limited resources they have (ammo, humans, tanks, etc) on units that may be called back to Russia to help against the rebellion or join the rebellion.
Waiting for that means they'll fight against much smaller units and so on, which can protect Ukrainian's soldiers from getting killed as well. So, they should take this time to shore up their offensive, give them breaks, watch for new weaknesses to appear and so on.
Slow and steady can be much more effective than fast and fail.
Remember that many Ukrainians do not want to kill Russians, many of Russian soliders are still their brothers and sisters that were conscripted or forced into this.
Seems like a good time for them to be enquiring
Probably not quite yet - they'll want to give Russian units time to retreat from the frontline and intervene in Russia.