this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2023
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And it'll happen again. Investors will figure out that what currently exists has limits, and 90+% of the value is in cheating in high school essay writing, spam, catfishing, de-careering non-celebrity artists, or minor chatbots and small text generating utilities that are mostly decorative features for existing large software moats/monopolies.
This time is different from in the past tho, and it's not quite clear how different. AI winter is starting, and it could be the shortest, or the last one.
For now, companies are still losing money by running this. Take github copilot as an example, licenses are at 10 dollars a month (plus your data ofc), but microsoft spends an average of 40 per user by running the machines.
But... two more papers down the line, more optimized algorithms and cheaper hardware...