this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2023
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China needs buyers. If the US stopped buying from China, it would be the same situation in China. Their economies are so intertwined that a war between them, even just financially, would ruin both
China has plenty of buyers, that's the whole point of BRI and BRICS. Literally all of the world constitutes China's buyers with US being a small portion of that. China would be hurt by an economic war with US, but US would be completely devastated by it because US depends on essential products and commodities it can't get anywhere else. Meanwhile, people thought Russia would be ruined economically once being cut out of western economic system and here we are with even IMF now projecting growth for their economy. Incidentally, trade between China and Russia has already jumped to over 200 billion if you want to see an example of China replacing US with a friendly trading partner.
I want to point out that the fraction of imports/exports between the USA and China is roughly symmetric (by monetary value). In 2022, about 16% of China's exports were to the USA; in 2021, about 17% of the USA's imports were from China.
That being said, you're probably making a valid point about which items are flowing, not just the raw value of goods.
Also, I would think it's generally easier for a producer to find new buyers of what it's already producing, than for a buyer to find a new producer for what it needs.
Edit to add: If we look at the ratio "Exports/Imports", we have about 0.3 for the USA with China, and we have about 3.3 for China with the USA.
yup
I think the point has been lost. The US not dealing with Russia hasn't impacted the US beyond fuel prices. The US not dealing with China would result in some commodities becoming more expensive and production being further moved out of China, at which point the price of commodities would come back down.
India wants to be the next China, and they hate China. That's where most US technical and manufacturing has been moving.
You should take a look at the sheer amount of commodities US imports from China, these can't be replaced overnight. Meanwhile, India is simply not able to do what China does. The whole talk of moving manufacturing to India comes from sheer ignorance of what it takes to do the kind of manufacturing China does. Companies are already giving up on India as the two links I gave in the other thread show.
I've seen graphs of the massive trade disparity between the US and China. If either side cut one off, there would be pressure to find replacement. It would be "cutting off the nose to spite the face." So far the pressure to move to India has only really ramped up since the COVID pandemic. It takes a while to build factories and train workers
It won't happen until there is a military clash between the two, which will end in respecting boundaries or WW3. China will fight to keep US industry from moving to a neighbor. If China wants to expand, they need capital.
Again, you can't just magic industry into existence. It takes time to create it. India is not a replacement for China, and it has a long way to go before it can do what China does. Meanwhile, China has no problems expanding because it's directly investing into countries in BRI and BRICS.
Investment is nice, but when the yuan is worthless to the euro or dollar it means that investment can be easily bought. China not paying on it's debts means the banks of the world devalue their currency. That means China has no purchasing power.
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