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You can't win the lottery
(lemmy.zip)
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this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2023
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been meaning to do the math on this for a long time but never remember about it.
Turns out I saved $43,800 by not playing the local lottery every week since my first job.
potentially times that by seven because there seems to be a different lottery for every day of the week.
I'd like to check if my smartarse sequential number pick ever won in that time but finding the historical numbers is a bit more work than I could be bothered with right now.
Depending on how your local lottery system works you probably would have had some minor wins over the years.
I have a $5 ticket every week. My logic is that "I'm renting hope" every week theres a minuscule chance that it could be my last week at work ever. I see a house that I'll never be able to afford and I think "Sure, if I win this week. Lol" as opposed to getting all shitty about wealth inequality.
Ah, so not only false hope but also crushing class consciousness.
Its not false hope, I'm aware that its stupidly unlikely but its not impossible. I dont think Ill ever win the jackpot but the idea that it could happen is worth $5 a week.
The idea that it could happen is false hope though, because you're buying into the idea that the chance is worth $5. The chance is so small it might as well be zero. So you're way over spending for a could that is practically a won't.
There are some situations with some lotteries where the math works in your favor because of for instance rollover. But if you're committed to $5 a week you're not that lottery player.
If you were to put $5 in S&P 500 weekly for a decade it is far more likely that you'll have a profit of a few thousand on top of the money that you did not spend on lottery tickets (because you still own the stock). That's not really as radically marxist as my previous comment might make me seem, but for your personal wallet it's way better.
In this economy if you want to become rich, the best thing is to start out rich. The next best thing is starting a company and pocketing the productivity of your employees. Back to that marxism thing again.
You are more likely to play your whole life and never win a significant amount, than you are winning once.
People who think they will get more out of it than they put in are delusional. Lottery is a business, only a small part of their earnings goes back into the pot.
Put that $5 in an index fund and pretend you won $10,000 in 20 years.
Based. Using a simple lottery ticket as something to draw hope is good.
I buy a lotto ticket when the Powerball gets ridiculous. Probably won't win, but I definitely won't if I don't get a ticket. A few bucks every year is worth that improvement from zero to non-zero.
You and many people, lowering your chances even more.
You are just donating money at that point.
I'm fine with donating like $5 every couple years. Also no, more people buying Powerball tickets doesn't reduce chances to win at all, it's not a raffle. The only thing that decreases with more players is, potentially, the payout assuming multiple winners.