this post was submitted on 19 Dec 2023
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I think there will be 6 close races. WI, MI and PA in the North and AZ, NM and GA in the South. A straight north-south split would leave Trump a few points shy of 270, he'll need at least one of those northern states to win. It will be very close and I agree that Pennsylvania or Michigan goes to Trump since democrats can't do electoral math. If the Dems lose both while taking the Southern swing states the two could tie at 269 which is the funniest outcome.
Agreed on the funniest outcome, but on the provision there are multiple faithless electors that cancel each other out
Why do you think NM? I have not seen a lot of discussion about them and don't understand the SW parts of the country in general. Arizona seems like its been getting even crazier...
I know nothing about the Southwest, I've lived around the Great lakes. I do think we'll see voting apathy amongst the under 40 crowd on the national scale and that could jeopardize the southern states. Biden did win NM by 10 points, so he'll probably get a close win. It also nets the fewest electoral votes of the six I mentioned so the GOP may not target it as much.