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Economists Predicted a Recession. So Far They’ve Been Wrong
(www.nytimes.com)
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this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2024
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It’s because the field of economics is just bullshit
No no, you can definitely predict money stuff with a crystal ball and arguing with people.
Definitely haha. Economics is similar to theoretical physics in that most of it only works in a vacuum, but I respect theoretical physicists more because they tend to view people as more than just cogs in the money machine.
When you study economics you literally spend 0 hours learning how to predict macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation/gdp growth. The reason is that these systems are too complex to predict well, except in the very short run. Yet policymakers continue to ask economists to make long-run predictions, and many continue to comply.
I personally was asked to be a member of an expert committee for my country’s central bank. For any prediction my truthful answer was: I don’t know, so they kicked me out.
what kinds of stuff did they want you to predict?