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Clock is ticking for Trump to post bonds worth half a billion dollars
(www.washingtonpost.com)
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this post was submitted on 26 Feb 2024
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Yeah I just really wonder what happens here. Like this timeline is meaningful and its going to open up some interesting issues. What happens when he just says "No."?
Do we expect legal enforcement? Does he get arrested? Does he just bail to Moscow? He's under financial monitoring. What does he just steal from the the Republican warchest to fund his debts? Then what happens when that money is just .. gone..?
So many uncertainties around this.
From the article, he has to put up the money in order to appeal:
If he doesn't appeal and doesn't pay his penalty, NY has already indicated they'll seize his assets:
https://apnews.com/article/trump-letitia-james-fraud-lawsuit-judgment-verdict-63e643d0fe098cc1ac178c003f21a40d
I never honestly expected him to appeal. It was all blustering and threats in an attempt to bully the courts into giving him more leeway, and to secure more donations from his rube supporters.
Donald Trump knows full well that these civil judgements don't matter at all. Unless he is able to win this election, he is going to spend the rest of his life in prison. Once this country learns what he was really doing with those classified materials, and how much of a traitor he really is then he will be well and truly fucked.
None of this money matters at all right now. If he gets back in the oval office he will manipulate the courts in a way that will guarantee he never pays, and if he doesn't he is going to flee the country or tear it apart.
You don’t think going broke and having his assets seized, and possibly having to declare bankruptcy, won’t impact his image during the election at all? You can’t possibly be that naïve.
No, I don't. Anybody who already supports Trump will just see him as even more of a martyr or defender of their cultish honor. Everybody else already knows he's a fuck up and a confidence man, so this is totally on brand for him.
I'm also not convinced it will materially impact his election chances since that money is coming from PACs that are separate from his personal wealth. There is very little these civil cases are going to do to impact anything at the moment beyond putting additional pressure on him. It has always been the criminal cases that were the real concern, and his primary focus.
As I said, if he can avoid becoming a felon and win the election he will make these civil judgements disappear one way or another, and violently if necessary.
I'm not so sure.
We might find that Trumps support from wealthy donors and power brokers starts to wane.
One can hope 🙏
That’s what you’re not getting. To the wealthy donors and power brokers, Trump is “their guy”. Covering his legal bills is just the price of entry. Remember: it’s a big club, and you’re not in it.
Well yes, but there must come a time when they start to consider that propping him up may not be worth their efforts.
“His Ruble supporters.” FIFY.
At this point I think even if he's proven in court a traitor he would still get votes. No matter the outcome this election year, the country is going to be in a crazy amount of turmoil
I wholeheartedly agree, on all points.
Any day now
Its one thing to signal, but this situation is a bit exceptional, even if we all wish it wasn't. He's a former President in an ongoing campaign for Presidency. What will the Letitia James do if Trump asks Proud Boys to take on security detail at his properties? Don't think they will? While Biden and the Democrats have been trying to brow beat their base into voting for a geriatric genocide supporting candidate, Trump has been rallying the ever living fuck out of his base. Those promises he made at CPAC, think he was bullshitting? Trump doesn't really bullshit. He means what he says and he says what he means. He's singularly unsubtle.
There are a lot of fucked up, disgusting cohorts of people in this country who will see a massive increase in their scope of power if Trump becomes president again. They are vitriolic, cultish, well armed, and they truly believe in the righteousness of their world view. The stormed the capitol on his orders. Think they wont do it again?
We've got Governers willing to defy federal orders right now. Would Greg Abbot or that cunt from Florida send state national guard troops to protect Trumps assets? Idk. Its wild to consider, but really not that wild.
I think its naive to think that things will just happen right along the books in this situation. Its not a normal situation, and it expedites the timeline for Trump substantially, because without this ruling, he's skating into the white house in November. This could be a real setback, or a real rallying point. Its not clear to me what happens, and I don't think it should be clear to anyone. There is just too much uncertainty, and its not a normal situation.
I think you're overthinking this. Your original comment asked about the consequences of him saying "no," so I outlined the legal options the prosecutor of the case has already considered and discussed. Let's see what happens soon.
Maybe. We'll see. I think its important to consider more than just what the legal options prescribe.
Up James's power structure, taken to the maximum, is the US military. Up Trump's power structure is...the Proud Boys or some other wannabe militia. The end result then is the seizure of Trump's property. Somewhere in there you can start imagining all manner of things from the start of a civil war, assassination, bankruptcy, Trump dropping out of the race etc. etc. so it becomes silly to try and extrapolate any further beyond yes the seizure will happen.
It's not like New york had to physically secure a building either. They can take legal ownership without setting foot in a building and sell it to whoever wants it. If there is a shortfall, they can make it up seizing accounts/boats/jets/whatever.
I assume you mean 'Bidens' power structure?
The right has been cheering on civil war for decades. The took a crack at it in 2021. They've made assignation attempts as recently as 2020 (Pelosi, Wittmer, a bit further back Giffords, who suffered a major brain injury as a result). Its easy to write this kind of speculation off as hysterics, but there is a legitimate history forming where it seems like the right will seize power by any means. Like this isn't made up hysterics, this is what these people are doing.
I don't think its unreasonable to expect something unexpected here, and certainly don't expect Trump to suddenly decide that its time to roll over and pay his dues. He'll fight this. It might not be in court, but he will fight this. And he's far cleverer than some of the above commentators give him credit for. Just because they can't see out side of the box doesn't mean Trump can't. I don't like to underestimate those I find myself in opposition to.
So like right now, what is Trump doing? He's about to have all of his liquidity erased. That's huge. He won't suffer that in passing, so what is he doing in the background right now? Is he calling around to the Saudis and cutting deals? Is he on the phone with Musk and others who might carry water for him so its not his money he has to spend? Like either he's going to try to figure out how to hold onto the cash, or he's going to need to find another source of cash, assuming he can even front the bond.
He doesn't have many legal options, so I expect him to to consider other than legal ones. Just a matter of sussing out which ones have legs.
Her enforcement options will never include the US military, because she is a NY state official. She doesn't have that authority, and even if she did the US military cannot get involved in civilian enforcement actions. The appropriate enforcement group here is the NY State Sheriff's Department, perhaps in cooperation with the NYPD.
But it won't even get that far, because there is already a court-appointed administrator for Trump's assets in the state. When James comes to collect, if Trump doesn't have the payment on time she always has the option to ask the administrator to provide the difference.
What you're describing has historically happened actually, but only in situations of the little people vs the banks. In the end, if the federal government feels authorized to seize your property, it will do so and shoot you if you get in the way.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny_auction_(foreclosure)
Yeah, as dismissive as people are of this, its a bit uncharted in terms of territory.
This isn't exactly 'little people vs. the banks'.
He only has to put up the money if he wants to pause judgement during the appeal. He's going to refuse to pay until the appeal fails, then appeal it again, daring the AG to seize his companies.