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submitted 4 months ago by fossilesque@mander.xyz to c/science_memes@mander.xyz

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[-] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 0 points 4 months ago

You didn't answer the question:

Do you know anyone who is voting for RFK Jr? He is polling at 10% right now, so if it's real then statistically you should know someone.

[-] LibertyLizard@slrpnk.net 4 points 4 months ago

It’s almost certainly true the RFK’s support will decline as we get closer to the election. This is a common trend with third party candidates.

However, it’s not totally clear which candidate those voters will choose. My sense is that RFK is not particularly popular but is a stand-in for the rejection of both candidates at the moment. However, most of these voters will switch over as the reality of RFK’s loss becomes more real. Often, last minute voting decisions will be based on the conditions and media narratives happening immediately around the time of the election. So the implications of what you’re saying on who will win are not certain currently.

[-] KevonLooney@lemm.ee 2 points 4 months ago

Yes, that's right. Basically you can't rely on polls this far from the election.

The question says "if the election were held today, who would you vote for". But the election isn't today, and the person answering the question knows that. So you see more people answer with third party candidates then would actually vote that way.

Not only that, but candidates' GOTV efforts do not happen until the election is approaching soon. That's what actually wins elections, not polls from 6 months before.

[-] Instigate@aussie.zone 1 points 4 months ago

That’s… not how statistics work there, friend. If there’s a 10% chance of something happening per person and I have ten people in a room, that doesn’t guarantee that one of them will have the thing happen. In fact, my sample could have 10/10 happenings or absolutely nothing happen and the statistic value would stay the same, because it’s an average of the entire population.

Trying to apply anecdotal evidence to statistics and then calling the statistic false when it doesn’t align with your anecdote is kinda doing things arse-backwards.