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This is why @shipwreck@hexbear.net (or whatever alt they use nowadays) talks about American control over Europe so much, and why they say that the real purpose of the Ukraine War was to weaken Europe. Somebody who is well-versed in Cold War history might see this as a ridiculous conclusion - Europe and America have been allies for decades! For at least a century, even! Europe had been accepting American military aid to combat a potential Soviet invasion for more-or-less the whole Cold War! The thing is that being allies is insufficient for American aims.

They can say that but it doesn't mean its a compelling argument.

Not only we know the US thought Russia would fold due to the sanctions, there were key events and circunstances pre-'22 that were not particularly under US control. For example the German Green party are largely responsible for Germany moving away from nuclear power, but this policy started in the 2000s even. Germany was supposed to become a green energy monster, there was so much propaganda about how wholesome Germany got so many solar panels or something.

The anti-nuclear movement didn't care, back in the 2000s everyone also thought the cold war was over and Russia was going to be integrated into the west as this was what both sides wanted. Some people were still scared about Russia but it was not worth taking Russia as an enemy compared to the relatively cheap energy.

Key events like Fukushima played a huge role too.

But also the EU was the only export market for American corporations and high tech. Europeans were the ones rich enough to buy shit from American industry. It would serve no purpose for the US to "weaken" Europe if it means no secondary market for US exports.

Remember the 08 crisis and the fallout over the EU? Remember how Spain, Italy, Ireland and Greece got fucked? The only reason the EU survived was German imperialism over this periphery. If Germany falls, so would the EU back then.

By the mid 2010's we're barely out of the '08 crisis, certainly any major geopolitical event could be an unsustainable setback for the global economy. I can't imagine anyone would be thinking about a NATO proxy war in Europe as a good thing for a global economy just barely recovering from 2008.

So to look at that and arrive at some conspiracy theory that 14 years later Russia would actual pull the trigger over retaliating against Ukraine(and we have to skip 2014 and Crimea issue too) was actualy a grand plan everyone knew all along this is what would happen?

But we have even more evidence during the war, for example the attempts at putting an oil price cap remember? The US/EU thought, no they demanded to be handed over energy for the price they felt entitled to. No they went further, they practically made Russian tankers illegal by removing their insurance from England.

They literaly, actualy realy thought Russia would fold one way or the other, they tried almost everything. Why? Because they recognized the EU was in serious trouble and the US wanted to eat their cake and have it i.e remove Putin but also ensure Russian energy remains in the global market.

If they didn't think this would work then who was leading who here? Was the US playing dumb telling the EU "hey we'll put some more sanctions on Russia, maybe even force them to send you oil because they have no alternative and it will all be fine just trust me bro"

Their ideal solution was a coup led by a population suffering from sanctions, it always works until it doesn't.