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this post was submitted on 09 Sep 2024
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I think you're missing the point of predictive modeling. It's probability of separate outcomes is built in. This isn't fortune telling, there is no crystal ball. Two predictive models can have different predictions and they both may have value. Just like separate meteorologists can have different forecasts, but predict accurately the same amount over time, all be it at different intervals. IIRC, the average meteorologist correctly predicts rain over 80% of the time. They are far over predicting by chance. But if you look at the forecast in more than one place you often get slightly different forecasts. They have different models and yet arrive at similar conclusions usually getting it mostly accurate. It's the same with political forecasts, they are only as valuable as your understanding of predictive modeling. If you think they are intended to mirror reality flawlessly, you will be sorely disappointed. That doesn't make the models "wrong", it doesn't make them "right" either. They are just models that usually predict a probable outcome.
I don't expect a model to be perfect. But it is certainly possible for one model to be better than another, for example one might think the Weather Channel forecast is less accurate than AccuWeather (at least for your region).
Which, in turn, means that it is possible to decide when a forecast is more "right" or "wrong" than another, because what other basis would you have for judging which is better?