this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2024
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Yeah the golden number seems to be roughly 2025 for engagement.
2 year delay is realistic considering the US is probably securing alternative supply lines during this time.
I wonder if China will halt trade with the US if they really go through with it.
Seems crazy that China wouldn't halt trade after the US directly attacks China. Personally, I don't see how it would be realistic for the US to sufficiently decouple from China in the next three years. Also, now that things are heating up in West Asia, the US might simply not have the ability to even attempt to engage in three major global conflicts at the same time.
I don't think it's impossible but the political economy just doesn't seem to be there afaik. The state would need to shake off the parasites at the pentagon that are charging them 10k for trash cans and bolts for one thing, and I can't really see how. It's not like there's an American Caesar waiting in the wings who can monopolize power to do necessary restructuring of the empire. The whole point of the system the founding fathers created was to prevent that from ever happening. Kamala of all people is the best they've got for this monumental project.
Right, it would take massive restructuring of how the military industry is run. I just can't see how that can happen in the next few years. If anything, we can see how little progress the US managed to make during the past two years trying to supply Ukraine.
The American government may be powerful enough right now to carry out atrocities like we've seen this week, but it simply seems far too divided and feeble domestically to actually carry out such a project which would require so much public investment, especially since it would mean an end to the many gravy trains enjoyed by the donors who decide what does and doesn't happen. If they're struggling just to get a few chip foundries built I really don't think they'll be able to wrap their heads around making a whole-ass new domestic industrial complex and undo 40 years of de-industrialization in, what, 5 years? China will be visiting other dimensions by the time they're done lol
agreed
You think them not being able to do 3 at once is going to stop them from trying?
oh they will definitely try
I imagine that the continued trade that China has with the U.S. is still very important, so I don't see China cutting it off until absolutely necessary.
I feel like the point when the US directly attacks China with their military might constitute a necessity for cutting off trade.
That's what I'm thinking.
Consider that Russia still trades with the west and even sells them vital materials like titanium and winter gas and we’re 2 years in now to the conflict.
I think it depends entirely on whether the US cuts China off first. China needs US food to enjoy a higher quality of living and the US exports a lot to them. If that continues China has reason not to because they want the food supply to continue. They won’t face famine or mass starvation or anything but quality of life would badly dip in that area without US food exports and if the US does that Europe may follow.
If China is cut off anyways from US and European food exports then they have less reason not to act. Sadly even if they act it likely won’t really destroy the west. It’ll hurt the consumer market and drive prices through the roof for electronics among other things and cause some shortages but it’s likely the US will establish alternative supply lines through Indian middlemen (India it turns out is selling ammo to Italy which is handed directly to Ukraine and they know about this and are fine with it) just as Russia has done.
China also doesn’t have alternative markets for goods. Their economy will be in huge trouble if they lose the US and Europe (and if they lose the US they lose their vassal the EU). Africa becoming large enough to buoy them is still a decade away or more.
So China has no way of shutting out the US while remaining open to the rest of the world. The US by contrast has decades of experience doing sanctions and tracking supply chains and as long as they control SWIFT and have dollar hegemony they can force others to comply to enough of a degree that China is probably hurt a bit worse in a vacuum.
For food, Russia seems like it could replace the US and EU, now or gradually. They are growing a lot in that sector, they can export via trains directly into China in a smaller distance, and they would be interested in more imports of chinese goods and services.
Somewhat. Russia doesn't produce a lot of the things the US produces. For wheat and certain other things sure, but for soybeans, for fresh green vegetables, for nuts, for fruit? A lot of that stuff Russia doesn't have the right climate for whereas the US has a uniquely diverse climate that allows them to from California to the plains and mid-west to the south to the northeast grow a variety of cultivars spanning everything from cheap corn and wheat to most every type of green vegetables, roots, nuts, fruits, etc. California alone has enough fertile soil and farmland to feed hundreds and hundreds of millions of people, maybe a billion if supplemented with grain staples from elsewhere.
As I said China won't starve thanks to their own work in this area and their friends in Russia but well the Soviet people didn't starve but they also didn't have supermarkets with fresh tropical fruit or often an abundance of typical fruits and certain types of vegetables were not in the fullest supply due to the constraints of what they could grow. Agriculture has advanced somewhat but there are still limits and being cut off from the US and its incredible amount of produce will certainly drive up prices for Chinese people. This is why I think the CPC had that push to reduce food waste. If this comes to pass the Chinese people will need to be a bit more frugal with food.
For China to truly replace the US they need to free from the grips of US hegemony and maintain good trade relations with parts of the global south in Asia and Latin America which is still a work in progress. As I said as long as US controls global finance they can cut off trade or make it very expensive and for perishable goods like food that's a real problem because you can't afford another stop in your supply chain in another intermediate country and routing through shell companies for all of this stuff and even for stuff you can it introduces another point of spoilage and rot.