politics

House needs a simple majority, and two thirds of the Senate.

Democrats would need ~18 seats.

First, that won't happen in 2026.

Even the best cases make it hard to win enough by 2028. Which is why impeachment is just not something we can hold out for.

Gerrymandering is part of why this is a problem, which is done at the local level, and again why every vote counts.

How could it play out? Assuming some absurdly weird upside down world just opposite of what we're living in, this is the only path just looking at the numbers...

Again, Democrats would need to gain 18 net seats. Seats Potentially in Play (Republican Incumbents): This requires looking at seats up in upcoming cycles.

• Class 1 Seats (Up in 2026):
  • Highly Competitive Targets: These would be the first priority. States where Democrats have won statewide recently or that lean only slightly Republican. Examples based on recent political history might include:
    • North Carolina (Budd-R)
    • Alaska (Sullivan-R) - Unique dynamics with ranked-choice voting.
  • Stretch Targets: States that are more Republican but could potentially flip under exceptionally favorable conditions (like the hypothetical turnout).
    • Iowa (Ernst-R)
    • Montana (Daines-R) - Depends heavily on candidate matchups.
    • Kentucky (McConnell-R's seat - potential retirement changes dynamics)
    • Kansas (Marshall-R)
    • South Carolina (Graham-R)
  • Very Difficult Targets: Solidly Republican states requiring overwhelming Democratic turnout and significant shifts among other voters.
    • Texas (Cornyn-R)
    • Mississippi (Wicker-R)
    • Alabama (Tuberville-R)
    • West Virginia (Capito-R)
    • Oklahoma (Mullin-R - Special election winner)
    • Wyoming (Lummis-R)
    • Idaho (Risch-R)
    • Arkansas (Cotton-R)
    • Nebraska (Ricketts-R)
    • South Dakota (Rounds-R)
    • Louisiana (Cassidy-R) - Jungle primary system.
• Class 2 Seats (Up in 2028): (Looking further ahead)
  • Highly Competitive Targets:
    • Maine (Collins-R) - Often competitive, depends on matchup.
    • Georgia (Perdue/Ossoff dynamic showed competitiveness, depends who holds it after '26 potentially) - Assuming GOP holds a seat here.
  • Stretch Targets:
    • Michigan (Peters-D currently, but listing potential GOP flips back if one happened hypothetically before 2028) - Generally leans D, but could be contested.
    • New Hampshire (Shaheen-D currently) - Generally leans D, but listing potential GOP flips back.
  • Very Difficult Targets: (Many solidly Republican states)
    • Tennessee (Hagerty-R)
    • Alaska (Murkowski-R historically, depends on dynamics)
    • North Carolina (Tillis-R)
    • Iowa (Grassley-R seat potentially)
    • Texas (Cruz-R)
    • Kentucky (Paul-R)
    • And many others similar to the 2026 list (SC, AL, MS, WY, ID, NE, SD, KS, WV, OK).

It's going to take an absolutely historic level of pain to both drive enough people to vote MAGA out to make this change though.

The amount that's being excused, sanewashed, and just drowned out with other absurdities...

We're on all on this shit ride until some new wildcard comes into play.

No impeachment, no Supreme Court, no guardrail is going to change that.

Something new and unaccounted for is the only feasible catalyst.

This admin is a joke and an embarrassment. It would be hilarious if it weren't so terrifying.

I keep wondering why should I or anyone else have to learn to behave professionally when you can behave like Trump and be given one of the most important jobs in the world

Oh the other hand, we’ve seen what happens when regimes get “professional” about sending undesirables to death camps.

That's because you have to have a sense of humour to joke.

This administration isn't joking. They just have a high enough ladder to have everyone see how blatantly racist and disgusting they are

That's a lot of work when a bullet will do.

That's death, and even more unrealistic than an undetermined amount of time in jail.

I hear Antarctica is warming up, we can send him there.

It'd be very curious if there was literally no country on the planet that permitted him entry. I was about to say Russia, but he's only been useful as a pawn in the US to them.

But the downside is that technically, regardless of what mechanism would trigger the dissolution of parliament, this has to be requested to and accepted by the King, who then sends out Writs of Electors

Of course in practice this is a rubber stamp tradition with no chance of not happening - if Charles went mad and tried to prevent this we would likely still have an election just with a side order of constitutional crisis and a wave of republicanism

But it's still dumb