He says as he conveniently ignores the existence of Boston Dynamics.
this post was submitted on 10 Dec 2023
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We're 15 years max from the inevitable "OpenAI + Boston Dynamics: Better Together" ad after they merge.
I mean, at this rate, I'm imagining Microsoft will have hollowed out OpenAI in a few years, but I could see them buying Boston Dynamics, too, yes
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What happens in the scenario where a super-intelligence just uses social engineering and a human is his arms and legs?
I loved Eagle Eye when it came out, I was 10(?). I never ever see it get mentioned though, maybe it doesn't hold up idrk but the concept is great and shows exactly how that could happen
Honest question, is this Eagle Eye? https://sh.itjust.works/post/10786110
They're calling it EagleAI
Eagle Eye is a movie
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This is the dumbest take. Humans have a lot of needs and the AI will likely have considerable control over them.
I would argue society would come to near-collapse with just the internet shut down. If we are talking about no power grid, then anarchy and millions dead in just a few days. Or Mr. AI could display fabricated system data to nuclear power plant operators, blackmail some idiot with their nude photos to give up rocket launch codes, or crash the financial markets with a flood of fake news. I am no way a doomer, but these are logically explainable scenarios utilizing existing tools, the missing link is an AGI who is capable and intends to orchestrate these.
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Who needs arm & leg if you can make the humans kill each other?
Honestly you probably don't even need to exist to do that.
Humans have been trying hard to do that on their own.
What are you talking about? We all live in peace and harmony here.
Gosh, I want to kill my neighbor.
Well, there's a complete lack of imagination for you.
Seriously!
Oh, you've tasked AI with managing banking? K. All bank funds are suddenly corrupted. Oh, you've tasked AI with managing lights at traffic intersections? K, they're all green now. Oh, you've tasked AI with filtering 911 calls to dispachers? K, all real emergencies are on hold until disconnected
I could go on and on and on...
You tasked AI with doing therapy for people? Congrats now humanity as a whole is getting more miserable.
I think this one's my favorite so far!
AI doc: "Please enter your problem" Patient: "Well, I feel depressed because I saw on Facebook that my x-girlfriend has a new guy" AI doc: "Interesting. I advise you to spend more time on social media. Have you checked her insta yet?"
I've got a great idea. Let's not do those things.
FISHFACE FOR PRESIDENT!
My first act will be to grant a boon to anyone who sucked up to me before I was president. You're doing well!
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Oh, AI is running your water treatment plant? Or a chemical plant on the outskirts of the city? Or the nuclear plant?
Good luck with that.
Whatever a virus is able to do, AI can, theoretically, perform aswell. Ransomware, keylogging, social engineering (I'd argue this one is most likely - just look at people trusting whatever AI spits out with absolute confidence).
When you mentioned nuclear power plants, Stuxnet comes to mind for me.
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I think a sufficient "Doom Scenario" would be an AI that is widespread and capable enough to poison the well of knowledge we ask it to regurgitate back at us out of laziness.
That's pretty much social media today.
Yep. People believe the no evidence bullshit that reinforces their current mindset spouted online without LLMs being in the mix.
You best start believing in societal collapse stories, cause you're in one.
Meanwhile, the power grid, traffic controls, and myriad infrastructure & adjacent internet-connected software will be using AI, if not already.
You have a very high opinion of the level of technology running power grids, traffic systems and other infrastructure in most parts of the world.
I'm pretty sure all of the things you listed run on Pentium 4s.
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There will be more than enough humans willing to help AI kill the others first, before realizing that "kill all humans" actually meant "kill all humans".
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"Bayesian analysis"? What the heck has this got to do with Bayesian analysis? Does this guy have an intelligence, artificial or otherwise?
Big word make sound smart
He's referring to the fact that the Effective Altruism / Less Wrong crowd seems to be focused almost entirely on preventing an AI apocalypse at some point in the future, and they use a lot of obscure math and logic to explain why it's much more important than dealing with war, homelessness, climate change, or any of the other issues that are causing actual humans to suffer today or are 100% certain to cause suffering in the near future.
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It's likely a reference to Yudkowsky or someone along those lines. I don't follow that crowd.
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AI companies: "so what you're saying is we should build a killbot that runs on ChatGPT?"
"We're not going to do that...
...because we already did!"
-Also AI companies probably
excited stock exchange noises
If an AI was sufficiently advanced, it could manipulate the stock market to gain a lot of wealth real fast under a corporation with falsified documents, then pay Chinese fab house to kick off the war machine.
Not really. There's no real way to manipulate other traders and they all use algorithms too. It's people monitoring algorithms doing most of the trading. At best, AI would be slightly faster at noticing patterns and send a note to a person who tweaks the algorithm.
People who don't invest forget: there has to be someone else on the other side of your trade willing to buy/sell. Like how do you think AI could manipulate housing prices? That's just stocks, but slower.
On the one hand, yes. But on the other hand when a price hits a low there will (because it's a prerequisite for the low to happen) be people selling market to the bottom. On a high there will be people buying market to the top. And they'll be doing it in big numbers as well as small.
Yes, most of the movements are caused by algorithms, no doubt. But as the price moves you'll find buyer and seller matches right up to hitting the extremes.
AI done well could in theory both learn how to capitalise on these extremes by making smart trades faster, but also know how to trick algorithms and bait humans with their trades. That is, acting like a human with knowledge of the entire history to pattern match and acting in microseconds.
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doesn't take a lot to imagine a scenario in which a lot of people die due to information manipulation or the purposeful disabling of safety systems. doesn't take a lot to imagine a scenario where a superintelligent AI manipulates people into being its arms and legs (babe, wake up, new conspiracy theory just dropped - roko is an AI playing the long game and the basilisk is actually a recruiting tool). doesn't take a lot to imagine an AI that's capable of seizing control of a lot of the world's weapons and either guiding them itself or taking advantage of onboard guidance to turn them against their owners, or using targeted strikes to provoke a war (this is a sub-idea of manipulating people into being its arms and legs). doesn't take a lot to imagine an AI that's capable of purposefully sabotaging the manufacture of food or medicine in such a way that it kills a lot of people before detection. doesn't take a lot to imagine an AI capable of seizing and manipulating our traffic systems in such a way to cause a bunch of accidental deaths and injuries.
But overall my rebuttal is that this AI doom scenario has always hinged on a generalized AI, and that what people currently call "AI" is a long, long way from a generalized AI. So the article is right, ChatGPT can't kill millions of us. Luckily no one was ever proposing that chatGPT could kill millions of us.
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