this post was submitted on 10 Apr 2024
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49
Sonia Sotomayor's retirement is a political IQ test (www.natesilver.net)
submitted 7 months ago by cyd@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world
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[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 19 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (2 children)

Sotomayor isn't even the oldest person on the court.

Thomas, 75 6/23/1948
Alito, 74 4/1/1950
Sotomayor, 69 6/25/1954
Roberts, 69 1/27/1955
Kagan, 63 4/28/1960
Kavanaugh, 59 2/12/1965
Gorsuch, 56 8/29/1967
Jackson, 53 9/14/1970
Barrett, 52 1/28/1972

Here's the thing though... Thomas and Alito aren't going willfully under a Democratic President, just will not happen.

That would throw the court from 6-3 Conservative back to 5-4 Liberal.

But even if that did happen, the next two oldest are Sotomayor and Roberts, one Liberal and one fairly reliable swing vote.

So we can't just maintain a Democratic president through Thomas an Alito, which is likely to be at least the next two Presidential terms (24-28, 28-32), but beyond that to possibly '36 or even '40.

[–] zeppo@lemmy.world 23 points 7 months ago (1 children)

She does have Type 1 Diabetes though, which unfortunately means an average mortality of 10 years earlier than someone without it. Of course, that's just an average.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 9 points 7 months ago (1 children)

Yeah, but someone with her level of health care and ethnic background? She's got a good 11 years left before it's a problem.

So we need to make sure the 2032 election goes to a Democrat and the Senate that year too. ;) Roberts will be on the block around then as well.

[–] cyd@lemmy.world 13 points 7 months ago (2 children)

We can argue actuarial tables all day, but the point is that replacing Sotomayor with a younger liberal justice has zero downside. It's as close to a free lunch as one can get in politics.

[–] JustZ@lemmy.world 2 points 7 months ago

Avoiding political wrangling is why they are lifetime appointments, for better or worse.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 1 points 7 months ago

Oh, agreed, zero downside, but there's no point calling for it at this time. Let's focus more on re-electing Biden.

[–] Fredselfish@lemmy.world 4 points 7 months ago (1 children)

They old enough maybe we get lucky and they have a stroke or something else. 74 not young.

[–] jordanlund@lemmy.world 2 points 7 months ago

I mean, they do have the best health care you can get. Look at someone like Sandra Day O'Connor, lived to 93. Fortunately she stepped down in 2006 when she was 76.

[–] RestrictedAccount@lemmy.world 13 points 7 months ago

This makes some sense.

But the court is not going to save us from Trump.

VOTE!!!!!!

[–] frazw@lemmy.world 7 points 7 months ago (3 children)

While experience is clearly an important job qualification for a judge, at some point their experience is from a different era. At the beginning of her training the world was a very different place, but she now applies her experience from that era to cases today. I don't mean to say her experience is entirely irrelevant, just that the old have to give way to the young if progress is to be made. These guys should have age limits if not term limits. At the very least there should be a known point in time that they need to be replaced so that political games cannot be played with their appointments.

[–] FuglyDuck@lemmy.world 9 points 7 months ago (1 children)

If you replace one judge every year, that will give the judge nearly a decade of service. If somebody karks it, the other guy gets to stay another year.

Once you hit your 9 years… (or 10,) you’re done. Retirement it is. (Or maybe you get to teach at a law school or something.)

[–] Viking_Hippie@lemmy.world 3 points 7 months ago

If somebody karks it, the other guy gets to stay another year.

Clarence Thomas serial killer origin story right there 😁

[–] docAvid@midwest.social 3 points 7 months ago (1 children)

So, do you not think the principle of ensuring a justice doesn't have to worry about their next gig is valuable, or do you think youthfulness is just more important?

I think the court should be expanded, quite a lot. There is nothing magical or constitutional about the number nine. Congress could easily expand it to twenty, or fifty, or more while limiting justices by terms or age would require a constitutional amendment. Nothing says every justice has to sit on every case. A larger court would be significantly less prone to extremes, reducing the importance of individual nominations.

[–] frazw@lemmy.world 1 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago)

That would be putting words in my mouth.

Firstly, I think that having been a justice, which is a very distinguished post , they would never have to worry about future employment, it would probably find them. I also think that a job for life means you don't worry about scrutiny. You can do what you want almost without consequence because you don't need to worry about what comes next. If no one can fire you, and you don't need to worry about people being happy with your performance, you can be free so act however you want. In your own interest. In the interest of some benefactor, or should you choose to, in the interest of the people.

Second, I did not say youthfulness it's important. There is a vast gulf between youthful and aged. I don't want a 20 year old justice and more than a 70 year old one.

Lastly, expanding it would be great. No arguments here.

[–] Paragone@lemmy.world 0 points 7 months ago (1 children)

it is learning, not youth, that makes a person be not-living-in-the-past,

& there isn't any substitute for getting old-enough to understand systems-of-systems thinking, as some "grandmothers & grandfathers", as the Indigenous people call 'em, can.

Age isn't, of itself, sufficient to judge whether someone's competent to do the work they currently are doing.

[–] frazw@lemmy.world 2 points 7 months ago

Yes I agree with that, but age is a strong indicator.