Nate isn't associated with 538 anymore.
this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2024
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And the article points out that the new group he is associated with is partially owned by Peter thiel
His job at Polymarket and his blog are separate.
Also 538 is predicting a Kamala win…
He uhhh... He isn't associated with 538 anymore...
But sure
It doesn’t matter if Thiel pays him, fact is that the electoral college has a real danger of being fixed for Trump IF people don’t turn out to vote
Nate Silver is good with odds, regardless of who he works for. This whole article is a genetic fallacy; it's saying that it's wrong just because he's funded by someone that supports Trump. There's no counter-evidence, although there's a counter-claim, that also doesn't have strong evidence.
As of 10 Sept., FiveThirtyEight is giving Harris a 56:44 edge over Trump. Personally, I tend to believe FiveThirtyEight a little more over all, because they're looking at and weighting many different polls. But these odds are way too close for comfort, given that Clinton was favored to beat Trump 6-4 the day of the 2016 election.
If you don't want Trump to win, get out there and vote, and make sure everyone that leans Harris knows that they need to get out and vote on 5 November, and make sure your Republican friends get out there and vote on 6 November.
Nate Silver is no longer with fivethirtyeight.
That explains the recent news.
Meanwhile, let's all be sure to vote.
How does it explain the recent news?
who cares what the pollsters say, just fucking vote
The other takeaway I'd have from this is - if Nate Silver is correct then it's a warning sign to Dems. There's a need to go out to the swing states and tweak policy positions and messaging to win over voters there to get the numbers back up and get a stronger win - one strong enough to translate into a win in the EC.
I'm confused. The article doesn't make clear the distinction between 538 (owned by Disney with Nate Silver no longer involved) vs Nate Silver's new (and paywalled) Silver Bulletin.