I think that your northern arrow is a bit too ambitious, a more realistic scenario for the upcoming few months is that Russia consolidates the eastern portion of Kupiansk and don't cross the Oskol River. They would then push down the Oskol until Borova and collapse the whole Oskol front. A latter stage would be pushing down from Russian territory towards Veliki Burluk and then down the western parts of the Oskol again until Kupiansk proper, mostly to keep supply lines open and avoid a repeat of late 2022 where they overextended into the Kharkov countryside. Vovchansk is way too valuable as a firebag where they can keep FABbing good Ukrainian units, and there's too much open exposed ground there. Ukrainian units in Kharkov are also still well-equipped and not as exhausted as in the Donbass, Russia can't risk too much there.
LargePenis
Two unrelated thoughts:
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Trump's batshit crazy cabinet actually proves that voting Trump was the correct accelerationist position. If you wanted to accelerate the downfall of American hegemony and the weakening of American institutions by appointing the biggest dumbasses on the planet, then you got your wish with this 2nd Trump admin. I sympathize with Americans comrades, but chickens come home to roost like the great martyr Malcolm X said.
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Russians actually entered deep into Kupiansk, I can't believe my eyes. Actually insane development, I didn't expect this at all so quickly honestly. It says a lot about the state of Ukrainian defences at this point. The story of Kupiansk is very interesting and serves as a good blueprint of the future of how Ukrainian territories will be integrated into Russia. Russia took over Kupiansk without a fight in February 2022, because the mayor was an intelligent man who spared the city from unnecessary bloodshed by calling the Russian command and telling them that they're free to enter the city without needlessly destroying infrastructure and civilian life. Civilians stayed, got their wages from Moscow, repairs were done quickly, civilians didn't leave, schools switched to Russian which the population already spoke perfectly, and that angered western media so much. When the Ukrainians took back the city in September 2022, mass arrests took place and sob stories were planted in media. The city was turned into a military hellhole by the AFU and most civilians had to flee. Russia kinda stabbed those people in the back during that disastrous period, but that's another discussion.
these are the people that lecture you about anti-semitism and racism
Just a few random thoughts about Russian strategy and current short term goals in Ukraine. I've been religiously following this war since the first few days and I guess like many of you nerds here, one begins to sort of develop an understanding of military affairs after consuming so much content in a short period. My analysis of the current South Donetsk offensive is that it is the most coherent and well-executed campaign since the start of the war. Previous long-term Russian and Ukrainian offensives were like separate islands of small gains, never joining together into one single front that drastically collapses an entire part of the front. Ukraine for example during their 2023 summer offensive attacked in three different directions, south of Orikhiv, west of Bakhmut, and south of Velika Novosilka. All those fronts never had a realistic chance of actually linking up, as they were too far from each other and there was never a real coherent "what happens next" plan. Same with the Russian offensive in the start of the war. They attacked near Kiev, near Kharkov, from the South and north of the old LPR territory, but the first two fronts could never realistically collapse an entire sector and link up to be one continuous front with supply lines entirely located in the captured zones. Even Bakhmut was the same, Russia made a dent in the frontline, but the lack of offensives in Siversk and Toretsk meant that Russia couldn't collapse an entire sector and straighten out the line again, so they only took the city and some territory around it.
Their current southern offensive is different though, with three big arrows that are actually threatening the entire South Donetsk sector for Ukraine. An advance of a few km from each direction now is lethal for the AFU. They would lose one of the most fortified sectors of the front, and escape into open fields with no fortifications all the way to Pavlograd. According to a map of fortifications that I saw last week, the whole section from Kurakhovo to the centre of Dnipro Oblast has barely any defensible ground, and the opening of that sector for Russian troops means that they will be able to outflank Ukraine's north-south trench systems in Zaporozhye, and the east-west systems in fortified central Donetsk. 2025 will be extremely decisive for this war if Trump doesn't pull off a 4D chess peace agreement.
Some Mozambique questions that I have on my mind after recently watching a vlog by a Palestinian-Jordanian vlogger who was in Maputo.
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How anti-imperialist is FRELIMO these days and how come that they seem mostly kinda hated by the locals?
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How prevalent is drug use and general crime in the country? There seems to be crazy amounts of drug users in some neighborhoods and even the metal car logo thingy in front of cars get stolen and sold in criminal markets that are semi-allowed in the country.
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Has FRELIMO achieved some success in terms of addressing widespread poverty and living conditions in the slums? The situation seemed horrible from what I saw in the video.
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How deep is Portuguese colonial penetration these days? We know that the French never really left the colonies despite the independence of the colonies. What's the situation with Portuguese imperialism?
Our gigachad is still being based as hell
This hot dude threw one of the Israeli hooligan fascists in the river. Happy he's on our side, we need more hot dudes with winner energy.
Despite his embarrassing levels of liberalism in recent years, I can't hate the man. Correct analysis by him, and hopefully he uses his last years to put together a foundation for something that goes beyond the Democratic Party and its corporate machine.
It's not over for Kamala actually, just wait for the diaspora pro-EU votes to trickle in folks
It's so funny that he's positioning him in front as the obvious favorite son of the emperor
The Haka in the NZ parliament video has been quite viral on Arab social media circles in the past two days, and it has generated some pretty interesting reactions that I will share here.
Reaction type number 1: why? The most common reaction is people being completely unaware of the history of Maori peoples in NZ, so they share or comment on the video in an attempt to understand the context of the video. Many comments ridiculing the thing, but most were just curious about who these people are.
Reaction type number 2: damn this is cool. Many thought it was cool and that it shows that Maoris are brave people that are not afraid to capture the white man's institution to do their dance and show their culture.
Reaction type number 3: this is a defeated people. This type of reaction was the most interesting in my opinion, because people made a lot of comparisons to Palestinians inside Israel who participate in elections and have representation in the Knesset. It was a lot of "is this really it?", this is a defeated people whose culture and way of life was mostly decimated by colonisers, and now they're standing in the white man's institutions wearing the white man's clothing and doing song and dance. I have to emphasise that most of these reactions actually came from a place of love for native people, but they saw the Haka in this particular context as a sign of humiliation, not strength. One guy wrote that Israel might let three Palestinians do a dabke in the Knesset in 2050 as they sign a law that deports all remaining Arabs in Greater Israel.