"Kemi Badenoch, the minister for women and equalities, is said to be pushing for the non-statutory guidance to include a ban on social transitioning by pupils, meaning that transgender children would not be able to use another name and pronoun or wear uniform of the opposite gender.
"But the Times said legal advice from Victoria Prentis, the attorney general, found that a ban on social transitioning in schools was unlawful under the Equalities Act and would require the government passing new legislation..."
"New legislation could delay the guidance until the 2024 general election. Alternatively, the government could issue guidance that drops the controversial clauses.
"On Sunday Badenoch told the BBC that the guidance would compel schools to inform parents if their child was questioning their gender. “What is right is that parents know what is going on with their children at school,” she said.
"But on Monday the education secretary, Gillian Keegan, declined to tell MPs when the guidance would be published, saying that she was working with Badenoch to produce it “in the near term”."
The criticisms of these polls is broadly correct. But I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion.
Nate Silver was bitterly attacked for weeks before the 2016 election for giving Trump a 20% chance of winning when most other (mainstream) pundits were giving him ~1%. It was bizarre to watch; they might as well have straight up told people not to bother voting.
It was Dem complacency that lost that election and thinkpieces like this do little but encourage more complacency. Trump fans will turn out. Biden-haters will turn out. People who would otherwise be holding their nose and voting for Biden will only turn out if they believe it matters. As they would have in 2016 if they'd known Trump had a realistic chance of winning.
Dems should be thanking biased Republican pollsters because Biden will only win this if a big chunk of eligible voters realise that they're going to have to hold their nose and vote for him.