This is increasingly a genre of youtube videos in itself, but I watched an interesting one last night that I wanted to discuss here. I'll summarize the video: an Arab Jewish guy who says he lived in israel all his life (I think he lives in Mexico now?) and that he has experience with every aspect of israeli society (religious, secular, rich, working class) basically says that israel is finished. They're going to attack Iran again (not much of a surprise to anyone here), probably within a few weeks or months (this is my own prediction, the USA is already preparing for this by abandoning Ukraine), and this time Iran is going to hit them with enough heavy missiles to make it impossible to live in Israel. The IDF will become non-functional and Palestinians in the West Bank and outside of Tel Aviv will rise up and (with the help of Hezbollah, which will invade from the north, and maybe even Hamas in Gaza) end Israel. He said that Jews are only really a majority in and around Tel Aviv; outside of Tel Aviv Jews and Palestinians are roughly 50-50. I think hexbear also knows about the political situation in israel, how society there is in crisis (the liberals can't form a majority while the center-right (Netanyahu) and the far-right (Ben Gvir) can't do anything except start wars). This makes another war inevitable, it's just a question of when.
For Iran, the trick is to end israel without getting nuked. The video guy thinks that israel won't nuke Iran (because israel can't be certain that Iran or Pakistan won't retaliate with nukes of their own), but my opinion is that this is wishful thinking. Backed into a corner, I think there is a good chance that israel will use nuclear weapons, even if it means they themselves will get nuked or that the fallout will affect their own population (or that the fallout will drift over Europe or China). The Samson option is a thing. It's completely insane, but israel is also completely insane. They will not go quietly. They will not just throw up their hands and say, oh well, you win. (This is what I suspect Justin Podur would say.)
The guy in the video also had some interesting things to say about israeli society that I didn't know: that Palestinian parties make up about 20% of the knesset but that the Jewish parties refuse to form coalitions with them due to racism, and also that the mood in israeli right now is ecstatic, everyone there is apparently happy, and the government is constantly saying that everything is amazing and going really well. It sounds insane because it is insane. I've heard other israelis say that people are currently like zombies in israel, maybe they're just ecstatic zombies. This is my impression of white americans in general too.
I saw some other discussion on hexbear about people asking why the USA loves israel so much. What does israel do for the USA? It basically keeps the middle east under control. It reduces countries as far away as Morocco to the status of Native American reservations, except Morocco has almost forty million people. The stock market also depends on genociding Palestinians; we are currently in a genocide bubble. Yet the USA wasn't always so devoted to israel. Its main proxies in the Middle East were Iran and Saudi Arabia until the Iranian Revolution—that's when I think the real American devotion to israel began. And if israel does actually fall, I suspect that Palestine will be blockaded like Cuba (unless the new government there can somehow lib out like post-Apartheid South Africa but that seems extremely unlikely to me even though there will probably still be many Jews living in post-israel Palestine), and that the USA will shift even more of its support to its client states (Egypt and Saudi especially) to maintain control of Middle Eastern oil and also the geo-strategic crossroads of three continents. But who knows? Once israel is gone, I think there will be so many changes, the nothing ever happens crew is really going to be upset. We'll be lucky if these changes take place without nuclear weapons being involved.
Just posting this here for hexbear to comment.
