One year on. Hundreds of thousands are dying or dead, millions are displaced, the Middle East is undergoing its greatest changes in a generation, Iran has directly attacked Israel twice in one year, and Yemen has proven that the US Navy ain't worth shit. We are the closest we have been to nuclear war (discounting accidents) in decades, but also the fall of Israel.
Because one day, the prisoners of a concentration camp paraglided over a wall.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
Can't wait to see what they do with the "stabbed in the back" narrative
My prediction is they'll first blame zelenskyy although whether they manage to grab him or he escapes is up for grabs. Then it's either on to blaming amerikkka or their other European backers. Amerikkka is the most obvious target, but distance and lack of a land border might make striking at Amerikkka more difficult. That leaves terror attacks in places like Germany or Poland, much closer and they share a land border over which they could smuggle all sorts of hardware from Ukraine.
I think it's not unlikely that we see some of Ukraine's special forces/ideological fighters committing terror attacks against their former backers. And with all the weaponry that's been flooded into Ukraine they'll have plenty of options. Random shelling with mortars, DC sniper style attacks, drone terror bombing, Brabant Killers shooting sprees, hell they could use a portable anti-air missile launcher and take down an airliner. All of these would be possible with fairly small portable weapons that wouldn't be too hard to "misplace" from military stockpiles and smuggled across the border
True, I did overlook that aspect of it. Depending on what the end of the war looks like (Russian occupation, annexed territory, etc) we could see plenty of terror attacks against Russians/those viewed as collaborators
There is nobody left in Ukraine with the will to fight. Whos going to lynch collaborators? Mobs of women are forcing conscription officers to give up the men they kidnap. The lynching of conscription officers and azov supporters are going to be what happens.
I don't think it'll be a popular/public issue, but I won't be surprised if the more ideological (read: fascists) fighters continue an underground insurgency given the chance. How successful that is we'll have to see, those kind of guerrilla movements do need the support of the people after all, and the average Ukrainian might be tired of seeing their friends and family thrown blown to pieces
The defeat may spur reactionaries who are brave enough for isolated murders but not brave enough to die for their country. It's happened before.
Creating a failed state that would generate terror attacks and insurgency on the russian borders is one of NATO's potential win conditions.
Anyone who wanted to fight Russia already has done so and most of them died. The only people left in Ukraine are bitter not because Russia killed their father, brothers, and/or sons but because the west and zelensky made them fight for no reason. There will be some terrorism in Russia but it will be 100% CIA.
The nationalists are getting pay cheques. They have all their names written down in lists. They wont be able to hide. Russia is going to do intense interrogations of anyone who willingly joined the army and "denazify" them.
I had an impulsive thought of Ukrainians doing a 9/11...
I won't rule it out but I think it would be way more difficult to pull of a 9/11 style attack in a post 9/11 world. Even ignoring security theatre and other changes like reinforced cockpit doors I think it's unlikely for hijackings to be as successful in a world where people know an airliner can be a missile and not just a hostage situation.
Unless the pilots themselves decide to do a 9/11...
A big part of why 9/11 worked was that no one was defending against it. A "new" 9/11 would be someone coming up with a similarly unprecedented attack.