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this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2024
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I don't think any serious analysts are suggesting that stronger support of Gaza would help her. If you know of any, I'd love to read about them.
Representatives Ayanna Pressley, Summer Lee, Ilhan Omar, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib, Cori Bush, Chuy Garcia, as well Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison, Chicago Mayor Brandon, Johnson, the United Auto Workers and J Street have all warned her that she needs to be more supportive of the Palestinian community. No one is saying she would win if she denounced Israel, but many people were warning her that she had to do something to show Palestinians that she gave a shit about them, like have a Palestinian speaker at the DNC or meet with Uncommitted leaders. She refused to do any of those things, and now the Uncommitted movement has declined to endorsed her, Muslim Women for Harris has disbanded, and she's two points behind Trump with Arab Americans. I don't think any serious analysts are saying her position on Gaza is helping her.
None of those are analysts lol
LOL, yeah, man, it's just dozens of Democratic politicians, a union, and a lobbying firm. It's not real until some chud with a Poli Sci degree says it on MSNBC.
I mean... You say all that as if it's supposed to be ridiculous. I specifically asked for a non biased professional opinion.
Well, first of all, if you think the people giving their, "analysis," on MSNBC aren't biased, LOL. People get on MSNBC (or NPR, CNN, Fox News, etc.) for their confidence, not their objectivity. Nate Silver was the closest thing to an, "all data, no opinion," guy, and he turned into exactly the kind of loud mouthed pundit he started out debunking. Second, if you want objective fact, why not trust the poll I showed you where she's behind with Arab voters? Or the poll from earlier this month that showed her in a statistical tie with Trump among Arab voters? Or the poll that came out today that showed Harris lead is completely gone?
Like, I don't know what else to you; Harris' poll numbers have been dropping, she's in a statistical dead heat with Trump in Michigan, and she's polling much worse among Arab Americans than Biden did in 2020. Those are objective facts. If you want to ignore them until someone on TV tells you to be concerned, fine, but I've given it some thought, and my personal analysis is that it scares the shit out of me.
"Don't trust the experts" is really NOT a compelling argument lol, makes me tend to think you got nothing.
The root of the question is, if she takes a hard stance on Gaza, does she gain more Muslim and Leftist voters than she loses moderates? And will this affect critical swing states?
Individual poll numbers about Muslims don't matter without context.
Yeah, again, I don't know what to tell you. I show you multiple experts like Congressmen, unions, and lobbying groups warning her not to ignore the Palestinian community, you say they're biased. I give you data from polls suggesting she's in danger of losing Arab American voters and Michigan, you say they lack context. I guess you want an impossibly detailed study of how many moderate voters she would lose vs. how many progressive voters she could gain by modifying her stance on Gaza, factoring in how their populations' distribution might affect the Electoral College, conducted by people who've never held a political opinion on their lives (or, if you were being honest, people who share your political opinions), but if the results didn't line up with your worldview, I'm sure you'd find a way to reject that too.
Anyway, since you've offered no evidence that I'm wrong (or any evidence of...anything, actually), and since I just remembered you're the account that's constantly getting suspended for toxic behavior, I've decided I've wasted enough time indulging you. There is ample evidence that Harris is jeopardizing her campaign, especially in Michigan, by refusing to make any gesture towards the Palestinian community. If you want to pretend that's not true, you do you. I'm not wasting any more time convincing you the sky is blue.
And, again, for the record, no one is demanding she take a, "hard line," stance on Gaza. The Uncommitted leaders just asked that they allow a Palestinian to speak at the DNC, or that she meet with them. You know, basic outreach. This bullshit that she can't be more appealing than Trump on Gaza without alienating everyone else is a false dichotomy you made up to justify your own beliefs.