The Dredge Tank
The Dredge Tank. For posting all the low tier reactionary bullshit that you can't post anywhere else. Got some bullshit from Reddit with 2 upvotes and want to share, post it here.
This community was created with the purpose that Rule 8 fans will just block it.
The rules are literally The Dunk Tank's rules, just without rule 8.
Rule 1: All posts must include links to the subject matter, and no identifying information should be redacted.
Rule 2: If your source is a reactionary website, please use archive.is instead of linking directly.
Rule 3: No sectarianism.
Rule 4: TERF/SWERFs Not Welcome
Rule 5: No ableism of any kind (that includes stuff like libt*rd)
Rule 6: Do not post fellow hexbears.
Rule 7: Do not individually target other instances' admins or moderators.
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how the fuck does a "simulation" like this even work? so insane
Take polling data then randomly roll for some error within the margin of error for each state. Then adjust based on bias. Do this n times and get your prediction.
Is there a point to this? From the tweet it doesn't give new information. It just reaffirms that three contest will be close which everyone knew.
They didn't get a certain answer so it was useless this time, but if it had turned out that somehow one candidate won a supermajority of simulations then you got useful information. Can't know unless you ask.
There is utility in some cases; there's correlations between polling and areas, and the electoral college makes it all complicated (by design)
But, like, here? No, no practical difference between any of the 'models' all showing some variation of 'its a toss up'
Yes, it's possible that despite close in polls, the margin of error would favour one candidate being more likely to win.
"Everyone knows" something until there's evidence to the contrary.
The polls and outcome could still be wrong if something unexpected happens, like if all the people who don't usually vote decide this is the most important election and vote for the first and only time in their life.
stochastic modeling is the key word for this type of modeling if you actually care. that kind of thing is used for all kinds of stuff - weather, climate, ecology, river flows, economics