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https://www.investopedia.com/trading/hedging-beginners-guide/
More like bet 80% on a likely thing and 20% on a disaster.
Thats more like the gambling we all know and love
Can we learn to estimate these odds on sight like that?
Unless you have in depth knowledge of the company operations or at least the very specific industry a company is in and all of their major investors, most stock investing is gambling these days. And with options, shorting, etc., even moreso. It's more about knowing when a stock will make large changes and taking advantage of those changes than actually investing in a company that you believe in. And the value of companies has little to do with actual viability of the company or it's assets, only the short term estimation by major investors of their profit. A single wealthy investor or investment firm can easily manipulate the price simply by buy or selling in large enough amounts and automated investment platforms cause a lot of fluctuations. It only works because retirement funds now are used to keep the market stable because no one wealthy and powerful has them, so they're good for sacrifice.